Pena and Paredes Lead Astros to Arlington

Astros finish home stand 4-2, with two series wins, take on Texas

The Astros rallied from a 3-1 deficit on Wednesday to pull out the third game and series against the Royals, leaving Daikin Park with a 4-2 homestand as they head to Arlington to take on the Rangers.

xWins

The win increased the Astros expected wins to 89.

AL West Projected and Should Be Standings

The 4-2 homestand and improved run differential and along with the Mariners struggle, has the Astros projected to first place in the AL West.

Things are a bit closer when we look at what teams records “should be”, but the Astros are still up a quarter tick.

Batter and Pitcher Season Projections

Slightly more than a quarter way through the season the projections are beginning to take shape.

Just a reminder: At this point, 75% of the numbers below are based on preseason projections and 25% on this year’s actuals.

That means some are more achievable than others, i.e. Yordan could still hit 28 home runs, but I’m doubtful Christian Walker hits 26.

Todd Kalas let it slip that Wesneski is likely out for the season on last night’s broadcast. Until that becomes official, I’ll keep him as potentially pitching again on the projections.

When (and if) he is ruled out for 2025, his projections will become his actuals, as has occurred with Montero and Tayler Scott.

Quality At-Bats

Dezenzo has made quite the move and deserves the playing time he’s receiving.

I was skeptical and still am to a degree, but he has performed.

Paredes, Pena and Meyers have been key.

Team average is 38.7%, so Cam Smith and above are leading the offense.

Rotation Information

The Astros have burned through 9 different starting pitchers in 42 games and are still getting a quality start 45% of the time, largely driven by Hunter and Framber, with occasional help from the others.

BsR

The Astros team total of -1.1 places them 21st in the league and they are on pace for an improvement over last season’s -12.8.

That said, it’s still not good.

Win Shares

The pitchers are still ahead of the batters by a margin of 11.5 to 10.5 win shares, but the gap has narrowed.

Rando Stats of the Day

Jeremy Pena is slashing .406/.425/.609 with a 178 OPS+ in 74 plate appearances in the leadoff spot.

Jose Altuve is slashing .222/.288/.352 with a 71 OPS+ in 59 plate appearances batting second.

Cam Smith’s bat speed (75.4 MPH) is in the 91st percentile, but his average exit velocity (85.4 MPH) is in the 4th percentile.

Hunter Brown has 7 quality starts and 1 Kikuchi Start in his 8 starts.

The Astros bullpen ERA (2.68) is second best in the league, .01 behind the Giants.

As always, thanks for reading!