Quantifying the Turnover in Houston
In life and baseball, the only constant is change. And Jose Altuve.
My son and I have spent a fair amount of time over the last few days talking about the 2025 Houston Astros.
We’re looking forward to the season. The positive and negative changes have left us with a certain morbid curiosity about what the season will hold.
Alex Bregman has always been one of his favorite players simply because he came along close to when my son became an Astros fan (and he turned out to be really good).
We traveled back roads and highways of Texas together hoping to get a glimpse of Kyle Tucker before he made the jump to Houston (Tucker took that day off).
There are emotions involved, though he has handled all of the change well.
Opening Day is going to be weird, with no Bregman or Tucker in the lineup, but it’s not 1975. Players move. All the time. It’s just business, as they say.
I generally analyze baseball by numbers. There are emotions for me, too, but less so due to my age and experience.
Looking at it from a strictly numbers point of view the Astros are losing their third and fourth most productive (measured by fWAR) bats of the last four years.
Plus, number seven has been gone for 3 years and number 10 is retired.
The good news is Tucker and Bregman will be replaced - the Astros are not losing their entire fWAR - though many fans act that way.
But this is a seismic shift.
Next year (2026) will be similar for the pitchers with the almost certain departure of Framber Valdez, who has been far and away the fWAR leader of the last four seasons on the mound, but 2025 brings massive change to the pitching staff, too.
Number 2 is in San Francisco, numbers 3 and 4 are hurt. Number 5 is in Chicago. Number 7 hasn’t pitched in years and numbers 9 and 10 are no longer with the organization.
Put the bats and arms together and numbers 3, 4, 7, 9 and 10 either won’t be an Astro or won’t be on the active roster when 2025 starts and number 5 likely won’t be around next season.
These aren’t your dad’s Astros.
It turns out that old saying is true - the only constant is change.
And Jose Altuve.
