Razing Arizona

Astros sweep Diamondbacks, grow lead to 6

Baseball is wild. The Astros sweep the Dodgers in L.A., lose 5 of 6 at home, lose the first two in Seattle, go down 3-0 in finale before rallying for an 11-3 win and then sweep Arizona on the road.

Crazy.

Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings

Somehow, the Astros are finding ways to win and in the big picture the line has been relatively steady since about mid-June.

Not only that, they are now even in July, with a 7-game homestand ahead and a chance to add a game or two by month’s end.

The “Should Be Standings” project the Rangers to second place and a much closer race than the actual standings currently reflect, at least in part due to Houston’s 20-9 record in one-run games.

If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, we would expect the final AL West Standings to look like this:

For now, Seattle remains in second place, so we’ll play the game with them…

The season series with Seattle is tied at 5, with the final three coming in Houston, September 19-21.

It’s the time of year to play one of my favorite games: “If the Astros go XX-XX, then…”

If the Astros go 30-30 the Mariners will need to go 36-24.

If the Astros go 31-29 the Mariners will need to go 37-23.

If the Astros go 32-28 the Mariners will need to go 38-22.

Simply playing 4 games over .500 (.533) for the balance of the season means Seattle would need to play .633 ball to catch Houston.

Possible, but not likely.

Batter and Pitcher Season Projections

Quality At-Bats

Team average is 39.2%.

Quality Start Record

Record by Starting Pitcher

Rando Stats of the Day

The Astros have the 3rd highest wRC+ (121) for July and are slashing .278/.340/.453 for the month (18 games), which is good enough for the 2nd highest batting average, 3rd highest OBP and 5th best slug % in MLB.

In July, the pitching staff has recorded a 4.11 ERA (17th), with the starting pitchers at 4.70 (19th) and the bullpen at 3.24 (12th).

The Astros are tied for 3rd in Outs Above Average (20) on the season with Mauricio Dubon leading the way at 13.

The Astros are 14th in BsR (-1.5), which is much improved over last season’s 28th place finish and -12.8 finish.

As always, thanks for reading!