Revamped Astros Lineup Quietly Raking
The focus is on other teams, but the Astros new lineup is one of the most-improved since the deadline
Popular thought in MLB circles is that the Astros added some decent pieces at the deadline, but that the Mariners “won” the deadline with the acquisitions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez and now have a much better offense than Houston headed down the stretch.
The numbers show that’s not the case, at least not yet. The Mariners may win the AL West, but it’s not because their offense has been better than the Astros’ offense, at least for the first two weeks of August.
More on that later, but for now, a look at expected wins and projected standings.
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
Winning two out of three against the Red Sox means the Astros remain at 90 expected wins, despite being outscored 21-12 in the series.
Back-to-back Mariners losses and the Rangers' skid have helped in the Should Be Standings.
If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, we would expect the final AL West Standings to look like this:
Tracking the expected wins going forward.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
What if I told you Christian Walker would finish the season with 24 home runs and 88 RBI?
It’s going to be tough to piece the backend together without Hader for the foreseeable future.
Quality At-Bats
Correa regresses a bit and likely has more regression to go, but has been huge for the offensive resurgence of this team.
Team average is 39.5%.
Quality Starts
Why are quality starts so important?
Record by Starting Pitcher
The Astros are 31-16 in games started by Valdez and Brown and 37-37 in games started by someone else.
Never thought I would say it, but the Astros miss Brandon Walter.
Offensive Comparison Since August 1
The new look Astros offense has thrived since the deadline, despite Seattle winning the headlines.
The Astros pre-deadline wRC+ was 103, so by that measure they have improved by 9%, whereas Seattle has decreased from 110 to 100, a 10% decline.
Jose Altuve on 1st Pitch of At-Bats
Jose Altuve is really good when he swings at the first pitch of an at-bat, but even better when he puts the first pitch in play.
Rando Stats of the Day
Victor Caratini is slashing .327/.389/.906 as a catcher (162 PA), .200/.188/.300 as a first baseman (32 PA), .205/.270/.330 as a DH (100 PA) and .091/.231/.091 as a PH (13 PA).
Wednesday’s save was the 10th of Bryan Abreu’s career.
The Astros are 42-6 in games that Josh Hader has pitched in.
Carlos Correa is slashing .273/.358/.472 over 1,595 career plate appearances at Daikin Park with an .830 OPS and a tOPS+ of 103 (3% better than his typical OPS).
As always, thanks for reading!