Roller Coaster

Up and down Astros

Since we last got together, Houston has gone 4-2 and pulled within 4 games of the AL West lead and within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot.

It’s just the next progression/regression in an up-and-down season, where the Astros can’t quite get over the hump, but also can’t fall out of it due to the mediocrity of the American League.

Is this 4-2 week the start of a sustained good stretch?

Who knows?

It feels like this next 13-game stretch, ending July 1, is important. The Astros host Cleveland (3), travel to Toronto (3) and Detroit (4), before hosting the Twins (3).

Of those teams, only the Guardians have a winning record, and they will be without Jose Ramirez, which seems important.

Houston will be 89 games in after this stretch and the difference between contending and “also ran” feels closer than ever to being determined.

8-5 keeps hope alive. I’d argue 7-6 or 6-7 keeps the team in purgatory and anything worse is a sign and not a good one.

Expected Wins

That 4-2 stretch and the resulting 3 run scoring deficit (29-32) leaves the expected wins at 74, a two-win increase over last week at this time.

wRC+ by Month (selected players)

Interesting chart, perhaps only to me. The steadiness of Yordan Alvarez (220 for March/April is hidden behind the 218 of June), the steady decline of Christian Walker, and the implosion of Christian Vazquez (expected to a degree) all stand out.

Updated Projections

The team is 8-7 in June with a 4.70 ERA and 4.38 FIP, including 6.14 ERA for the starters and 2.97 for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the bats slashed .240/.318/.425, with 20 home runs and scored 73 runs (4.9 per game).

Hader’s recovery has strengthened the bullpen.

Record by Starting Pitcher

An Arrighetti loss, but the return of Hunter Brown fuels hope.

Quality Starts

Twenty quality starts on the season, 16 wins. This game can be really simple at times.

Houston is on pace for 42 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

Not a recipe for making the postseason.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 35, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan is dominating so much that the scale is losing its visual effect.

According to this measure, he has earned 30% of the Astros’ wins on his own.

With one start, Brown jumps from 1.4 to 2.1.

Fantastic job by Arrighetti and Lambert.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 17.

Thanks for reading!