See Saw
Astros toggle between good and not-so-good
Following a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles, the Astros turned around and swept the Miami Marlins to even their record for the just-completed home stand at 3-3.
Not ideal, but certainly better than it looked Sunday afternoon.
Before we get to the expected wins, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run:
Projected Remaining Record: 29-29
Projected Final Record: 79-83
Win Division: 12.3%
Wild Card: 11.5%
Make Playoffs: 23.9%
That feels about right to me, and as we’ll see, better than what I am currently projecting.
Expected Wins
The Astros still can’t seem to get past 77 expected wins, which they have now reached 5 times since June 30, only to fall back.
After the sweep of the Marlins, they once again sit at 77, with trips to Chicago and Anaheim on tap.
Hopefully, this post-All-Star Break breakout clarifies recency a bit.
The Astros are within 6 xWins of the AL West lead.
July wRC+
Alvarez, Pena and Paredes continue to lead the offense, while Walker and Smith have struggled mightily.
Updated Projections
My son and I were in the house for Lucas Spence’s debut, and based on a whole two games in person and four on TV, my takeaway is he is very similar to Jake - a good fielder (maybe half a notch below Jake) and a mediocre bat (maybe half a notch above Jake, but too early to tell).
The team has a 4.69 ERA in July, with the starters at 5.78 and the bullpen at 3.43.
The starters have been better over these last 6 days (two Lambert starts, one for other rotation members) - 3.62.
The bats are slashing .241/.310/.429 with 26 HR and 76 runs in 16 July games (4.75 R/G).
Record by Starting Pitcher
How does Astros Ace Peter Lambert sound?
Quality Starts
The number of quality starts has edged up, but as I feared, the winning percentage is regressing.
On pace for 48 after 70 last season.
Game Scores
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.
So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
Win Shares
Let me know what you think of the new format. I’m still messing around with it, hoping to make it easier to read.
Yordan continues to dominate, but it’s been a nice season to date for Isaac, and Pena is on a tear.
MLB Expected Wins
I’ll be back (probably) next Friday.
Thanks for reading!