Signs of Life
Astros take two of three from Padres
The Astros took 2 of 3 from the Padres over the weekend and are now 10-11 on the season.
Next up is a three-game series in Houston against the Toronto Blue Jays (12-10).
Updated Season Projections
Updated projections are below.
Despite getting in the game late last night, Zach Dezenzo is a wasted roster spot.
I’m not sure what is in Sugar Land to replace him, but I feel like he and Chas on the roster are duplicative.
In my mind, Chas is the better player, can play all three outfield positions and offers more as the 4th outfielder.
I suggested to my son that one option is to carry three catchers and that makes some sense to me given Yainer’s lack of production to date.
Regression Candidates
In the offseason Ronel Blanco and Taylor Scott were identified as two potential regression candidates at least in part due to their abnormally low BABIPs in 2024, with Blanco registering a .220 and Scott a .230 last season against a league average of .291.
With only Spencer Arrighetti in the positive range, this portends regression ahead for the rotation in general, particularly for Ronel Blanco, which is a familiar theme.
Blanco’s xERA was 4.00, much closer to his FIP than his actual ERA of 2.80.
Together these two metrics point to Blanco being lucky in 2024 and closer to a 4.00-4.15 FIP pitcher than his 2.80 ERA might indicate.
Additional numbers back up this theory such as Blanco having a BABIP of .220 last season when the league was at .291.
With the usual “It’s early” caveat, this appears to be true, even after Scott’s outstanding performance Saturday against the Padres.
Blanco’s BABIP is up 120 points and Scott’s 118.
Note: Stats do not include Scott’s appearance Sunday night.
The league average is currently .269 so you would expect some in-season negative regression from guys like Hader, King and Arrighetti when he returns, but also positive regression for Blanco and Scott (and Abreu).
Wesneski Watch
Still a fascinating watch for me, as Saturday night Weneski threw fastballs and sweepers a combined 72% of the time and many of them were beautiful.
The two pitches I suggested he should use more - cutter and change up - were lightly used and yielded little to no results in outs or hits.
Who knows why that is, maybe they weren’t working or those weren’t the pitches the Astros thought would get the Padres out, but the results show decent results for the sweeper (.214 average against) and four-seamer (.222).
However, expected batting averages show a different result and more expected success with literally every other pitch besides those two.
That’s reinforced by the RV/100 and I’ll remind you about the sample size on the cutter - he’s given up one hit on it and unfortunately that ball went over the fence despite a .115 xBA.
Stuff, Location and Pitching+ for Rotation
Below does not include Sunday night (Framber).
Fascinating stuff as Gusto’s numbers match the eyeball test that he’s been good in his first two starts.
It also validates the preseason thought on Wesneski’s location and further cements Blanco’s regression.
Expected Wins
The Astros are hanging around that 80-win mark.
I’ll be back later in the week.
Thanks for reading!