Signs of Life

Astros take series in Boston

We take our wins where and how we find them, whether they are pretty or not.

They all count the same at the end of the season.

The Astros have a 14-21 record, are out of the AL West cellar, and trail the A’s by 4.5 games.

Updated Projections

We are now 21.6% of the way through the season and the team has a 119 wRC+ (4th) and 5.75 ERA (30th).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Another good, if inefficient, start by Arrighetti.

Quality Starts

For the first time, the Astros lost a start when they got a quality start.

As I mentioned last time, teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start across the league.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score as this one does.

Game Scores

Arrighetti leads the active starters, but Lambert has been solid.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 14, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to lead, but he took a step back in Boston with Christian Walker gaining 0.8 wins over that series.

The catchers are interesting to compare.

The pitchers are finally positive as a group (0.2 fWAR = 0.1 win shares).

Astros Expected Wins

2-1 and outscored Boston 10-7.

AL West Expected Wins

While the Astros are officially out of the cellar, my projections still show them tied for last.

The good news is the AL West is so mediocre that they are not out of it.

MLB Expected Wins

Thanks for reading!