Silver Linings Don't Win Pennants
New guys were solid, but Astros drop 3 in Boston
That’s Spencer Arrighetti in the cover photo, someone we haven’t seen on an MLB mound since mid-April, but who all signs point to starting a game in Miami Tuesday or Wednesday.
If Jeremy Pena returning from the IL was a huge plus, this one helps, too, though perhaps not as much as we’ll see in our Win Shares segment below.
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
Barely hanging on at 89 with the sweep in Boston.
Definitely trending in the wrong direction.
Hanging on by a thread in the Should Be Standings.
If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, we would expect the final AL West Standings to look like this:
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
As we’ll see in the Quality At-Bat section, it was a solid weekend from the new guys.
At press time no Arrighetti transaction, so for now I’m leaving him on the “inactive” portion.
Quality At-Bats
The new guys combined for 17-32, led by Correa’s 9 for 13.
Not a sustainable pace, but it should be better than the guys they are replacing.
Win Shares
While it’s nice to have Pena back, the bummer is that Paredes and Meyers are still on the IL with no end in sight.
The Astros have accumulated 31.0 fWAR to date, 15.3 for the batters and 15.7 for the pitchers.
Given that they have 62 wins, the math is easy. Each fWAR has been worth 2 wins this season.
Rando Stats of the Day
Carlos Correa had a 50% Hard Hit%, with a 98.3 MPH average exit velo and a max exit velo of 111.2 in Boston while compiling 9 quality at-bats in 13 plate appearances.
Since July 1 (110 plate appearances), Christian Walker is slashing .316/.373/.510 with 5 HR, 21 RBI a .380 wOBA (~121 wOBA+) and a 146 wRC+.
Since July 1, the Astros' team ERA is 4.39, with the starters combining for a 5.02 ERA and the bullpen for a 3.45 ERA.
The starters appear to have been pitching in some bad luck as during that time they have recorded a 4.32 FIP and 3.84 xFIP.
As always, thanks for reading!