Slipping Away
Astros drop 2 of 3 in LA
Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next week, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.
NEXT UPDATE: June 19
In a disappointing turn of events in a disappointing season, the Astros lost two of three in Anaheim, dropping them to 31-39.
Scoring 8 runs over 3 games is not a recipe for success, especially when you gave up 17.
Consequently, the expected wins drops to 72.
Worst in MLB
My son and I were talking about the walks and how the ABS system has hurt some pitching staff more than others. While I’m hesitant to draw sweeping conclusions from a single metric, the chart below shows that the Astros’ BB/9 has increased the most of any MLB team from 2025 to 2026.
Data is through games of June 10.
Updated Projections
The team is 4-5 in June with a 4.44 ERA and 4.65 FIP, including 5.91 ERA for the starters and 2.55 for the bullpen.
Meanwhile, the bats slashed .233/.314/.397, with 9 home runs and scoring 44 runs (4.9per game).
Walker has cooled and Altuve coming off the IL has yet to get going.
As noted above, the bullpen has been better as a whole.
Record by Starting Pitcher
Arrighetti continues to lead the way, even when not at his best.
Quality Starts
No quality starts since the last update and with 19 quality starts after 70 games, Houston is on pace for 44 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.
That is not a recipe for making the postseason.
Game Scores
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.
So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.
Win Shares (not fWAR)
Add all these together, and you get a net of 31, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.
It’s Yordan’s world, and it’s not close.
Hunter Brown has made two starts and he is fourth on this list after 67 games. Incredible.
MLB Expected Wins
The data below is through June 10.
Thanks for reading!