Typically, I’m a two out of three guy, when everyone else is expecting a sweep against, say, the Rockies.
But the Astros needed 3 in Atlanta against a team going nowhere and couldn’t close the deal.
In a lot of ways, that’s the story of the Astros season. So close, but can’t close, whether it’s pitchers with two outs and no one on giving up runs, or first and third with 0 (or 1 out) and not being able to score on offense.
I’m not sure if this happens to other teams, as I'm primarily focused on the Astros and mostly see other teams when they’re playing against Houston.
It warps the mind at times, making you feel like the Astros do the same things over and over (whether good or bad), without realizing that “that’s just baseball” and every team is flawed in some way.
On to the latest.
Expected Wins
I’ve update the graph below to reflect September only and the Astros are down a game over the first two weeks of the month.
Full year below.
The Should Be Standings
Over the past week the Astros have dropped into third and lost 1.6 games.
Why does that matter? This tells us how well a team is playing, as it’s based on run differential AND wins/losses.
In short, in a “normal” season we’d expect the Rangers to be in first place, but they’ve been “unlucky”, at least more unlucky than Seattle or Houston.
Also, the Astros have been lucky to the tune of 1.7 games (81 wins - 79.3 expected wins), meaning they are lucky to only be a game out.
Projected Standings
It’s the time of year when we add the decimal to the GB column to make it more meaningful.
If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, Seattle will take the AL West:
Wild Card
Right now, I have the Blue Jays winning the East with the Yankees (91) and Red Sox (89) earning Wild Cards.
That means the Astros and Rangers are battling for the final AL Wild Card spot, with the Astros holding a slight lead (~0.8 games).
Professional Projections
Fangraphs projects the Mariners to 89 wins, Houston with 87 and the Rangers 85.
Houston’s playoff odds have plummeted and are now assigned just a 30.1% chance of winning the division, while holding a and a 72.5% chance of making the playoffs.
Obviously, the next two series will tell us a lot about the AL West and playoff race.
Remaining Schedules
Houston - 3 home vs. Texas, Off Day, 3 home vs Seattle, Off Day, 3 at Athletics, 3 at Los Angeles Angels.
Seattle - Off Day, 3 at Kansas City, 3 at Houston, Off Day, 3 home vs. Colorado, 3 home vs. Dodgers.
Texas - 3 at Astros, Off Day, 3 home vs. Marlins, Off Day, 3 home vs. Twins, 3 at Guardians
Batting and Pitching Projections
With 92.6% of the regular season done, the projections below are likely close to the final stats. “They are what they say they are.” For the most part.
Rando Stats of the Day
Since the trade deadline: Seattle 24-16 Texas 22-18 Houston 19-22.
Since his return from the IL, Yordan Alvarez has a hard hit% of 57.4%, which is second on the club in that time span to Jake Myers (59.1%). (Not counting Zach Cole’s small sample).
Opponents are batting .179 off Bryan Abreu’s 4-seam fastball and .195 off his slider. The two pitches make up 98.5% of Abreu’s repertoire. While the slug has been low on both pitches (.245 on four-seamers and .301 on sliders), the xSLG is much higher on both pitches (.364 on 4 seam and .346 on sliders).
Bryan King has not allowed a run in his 5 September appearances, covering 6 innings. For the season, King is in the 94th percentile in xwOBA/xERA, 95th in xOBP, 92nd in Barrel% and 97th in BB%.
As always, thanks for reading!