Slow Starts Nothing New to Astros

A look at Houston's penchant for slow starts over the last decade

The golden age of Astros baseball either began in 2015 or 2017 depending on who you ask, and even though they’ve made the playoffs or finished over .500 in every one of these seasons, they also had a slow start to almost every one of those seasons.

Sometimes these slow starts lasted a few days, and other times, it was a few weeks.

So since the Astros have gone 2-5 to begin the season we’ll talk about every slow start the Astros have had since 2015. 

2015: 4-6 (Finished 86-76, Lost ALDS 3-2)

The Astros hadn’t made the playoffs in ten years entering the 2015 season, and the 2015 season started in a similar, disappointing fashion.

After the first ten games, the Astros were 4-6. There were some seriously underperforming hitters up to this point in the season. George Springer was batting a paltry .135 to begin his sophomore season. Evan Gattis wasn’t much better, at .139 and 1st Baseman Chris Carter was batting .088.

The Astros overall struggled to score runs to begin the season, only scoring five or more runs three times in the first ten games (and in one of those games they only scored more than five because it went 14 innings). 

All of a sudden the team got hot, winning ten games in a row and fourteen of their next fifteen. Houston went from not being able to score five runs or more in a game to scoring five or more in six straight games.

During their ten-game winning streak, the Astros swept the Athletics, Padres and Mariners. 

While the struggles weren’t close to over in the 2015 season, the Astros were able to finish 86-76 and snap their playoff drought. 

2016: 17-28 (Finished 84-78, Missed Playoffs)

The only year that the Astros have missed the playoffs in the last nine years also happened to have their slowest start out of the Astros Golden Age.

Houston started off very poorly at 17-28 and were playing from behind the entire season.

They were last in the AL West up until May 25th, despite making the playoffs the season before.

Despite the poor record to begin the season, they really didn’t play that bad. Now it is true that all wins and losses count the same. However, in their first 28 losses, the Astros, 19 of them were by three runs or less.

Houston was getting unlucky in quite a few of their losses. 

Six of these losses came to the Rangers and five of them were by three runs or less. 

This perfectly lined up with how the Rangers season went in 2016. Texas was legitimately one of the luckiest teams in baseball history going 36-11 in one-run games, 65-36 in games separated by three or fewer runs and 18-24 in blowouts that season.

Meanwhile, the Astros were a lot more grounded in reality at 28-25 in one-run games, 55-54 in games separated by three or fewer runs, and 23-19 in blowouts.

The Astros also had 34 blown leads and 34 comebacks while Texas had a whopping 49 comebacks and 28 blown leads. 

Credit to the Rangers for winning the division, especially by this many games at a slim margin.

I just can’t help but think how if the Astros won a few more close games they could’ve made the Wild Card that season.

The Astros did start playing better, even going 37-16 in their next 53 games. However, a late July/early August stretch where the Astros went 3-11, along with losing 6/7 in September led to them not being able to overcome their terrible start.

Houston missed the playoffs and finished at 84-78.

This, however, would be the last time the Astros missed the playoffs for many years.

2017: 4-4 (Finished 101-61, Won World Series 4-3)

Back to a much shorter slow start, and a much shorter entry. It might surprise you that the 2017 Astros started slow for a week.

The Astros started the season 4-4. Despite being an offensive juggernaut, the Astros failed to score more than five runs until their ninth game.

They won their first three games in Houston against Seattle, then lost against Seattle and back-to-back games against the Royals.

After winning the series finale against Kansas City on a walk-off walk by Evan Gattis, they flew to Seattle and lost 6-0, to fall to 4-4. 

The offense as previously mentioned was poor to start 2017. Springer, Altuve and Bregman all had low batting averages as Springer was hitting .219, Bregman .179, and Altuve .188.

Springer did have a pretty good OPS at .931, showing he slugged the ball pretty well to start the season, just not as often as he probably would’ve liked. Altuve and Bregman’s OPS was below .500 (Altuve at .188 and Bregman at .179).

Yuli Gurriel, however, was the worst as he started 3/24, a far cry from his overall performance during a season where he was fourth in Rookie of the Year.

The Astros quickly turned it around going 10-2 in their next 12 games and never looked back cruising to a division title and eventually ended up winning their first World Series. 

2019: 2-5 (Finished 107-55, Lost World Series, 4-3)

One of the most offensively talented teams in MLB history, the 2019 Astros ironically started the season pretty poor on offense.

Just like the 2017 team, they failed to score more than five runs in their first eight games.

Houston began the season by losing 3 of 4 in Tampa Bay and 2 of 3 in Arlington.

The low point of that road trip came in the series finale against Texas where the Astros lost 4-0 and the home plate umpire went on an absolute power trip, ejecting manager AJ Hinch and hitting coach Alex Cintron. 

The Astros immediately responded by winning ten in a row, sweeping the Athletics, Yankees and Mariners. They would still have slumps as they lost seven in a row in June, and five in a row in August.

Despite these slumps, the 2019 Astros were very good, finishing 107-55, a team record in the wins column.

Unfortunately, the Astros fell short against the Nationals in the World Series in seven games. 

2020: 7-10 (Finished 29-31, Lost ALCS 4-3)

Struggling was the main story of the 2020 regular season. The Astros started the 2020 season with a 7-10 record. The offense wasn’t the problem as they scored five or more runs in ten of their first seventeen games.

It was the pitching that was the problem this time. They also gave up five or more runs in ten of their seventeen games as well. This came mainly from the bevy of injuries to their bullpen (and to Justin Verlander).

Many pitchers made their MLB debut in 2020 for the Houston Astros including, but not limited to Cristian Javier, Brandon Bielak, Luis Garcia, Blake Taylor, Enoli Paredes, and Humberto Castellanos.

Another big issue was the Astros missing star slugger Yordan Alvarez for all but two games.

Another interesting note is that the Astros were 20-8 in Minute 1Maid Park, and 9-23 on the road, the opposite of how the team has looked in the past few years. (They had two original home games they had to play on the road because of a Hurricane, and the A’s catching Covid-19).

The Astros were able to get six games over .500 at a 21-15 but a late season 8-16 slump led to them finishing under .500 for the first time since 2014. Despite this, the Astros made a great playoff run, beating the Twins 2 games to 0 in the Wild Card Series, and beating the Athletics 3 games to 1 in the ALDS. They fell short to Tampa Bay in the ALCS 4 games to 3.

Above: Joey Loperfido takes some hacks against Round Rock 3.30.24

2021: 7-10 (Finished 95-67, Lost WS 4-2)

For the second season in a row, the Astros started 7-10. Weirdly, they started 6-1, beating the A’s five times and splitting a two-game series with the Angels.

However, in the second series of the season, the Astros lost 2 of 3 to the A’s after winning the previously mentioned first game of the series.

Things went from bad to worse when Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Martin Maldonado were put in COVID-19 safety protocols.

This led to the Astros getting swept by the Detroit Tigers at home, losing 2of 3 in Seattle, and getting swept in a two-game series against the Rockies in Coors Field.

By the time this stretch of games was over, the Astros were 1-9 in their last ten games. 

Eventually, Bregman, Altuve, and Yordan returned and the Astros slowly climbed out of their hole and peaked at an eleven-game winning streak in the middle of June.

The 2021 Astros proved that their slow start was a fluke as they went 36-12 in blowouts (games separated by five or more runs).

The Astros were able to beat the White Sox in the ALDS, and the Red Sox in the ALCS.

They unfortunately fell short to the Braves in the 2021 World Series.

2022: 7-9 (Finished 106-56, Won WS 4-2)

For a few years, the Astros seemed to enjoy starting slow with exactly seven wins.

Houston began the 2022 Lockout Season with a nine-game road trip, starting 4-1, taking 3 of 4 in Anaheim, and splitting a two-game series in Arizona.

The Astros then went 3-8 in their eleven games losing series to the Mariners, Angels, and Blue Jays.

After losing their season's worst fourth game in a row, a few star players had very bad batting stats. Kyle Tucker’s batting average was down to .140 and his OPS was at .492. Yordan was batting .152 with a .455 slugging percentage, showing that he was hitting the ball hard, just not very often.

Also, Niko Goodrum had played half the games up to this point for the Astros, and no offense to Niko Goodrum, but that wasn’t going too well. 

Momentum shifted for Houston after rookie Jeremy Pena hit a walk-off home run against the Blue Jays in the series finale, snapping the four-game losing streak.

Afterward, the Astros went 15-2, with an eleven-game winning streak.

The Astros did not look back after this winning streak, never trailing in the division for the rest of the season.

The 2022 Astros were good in one-run games (28-16) and blowouts (35-13).

Despite their slow start, the Astros swept the Mariners in the ALDS, the Yankees in the ALCS, and beat the Phillies in the World Series in six games. 

2023: 3-6 (Finished 90-72, Lost ALCS 4-3)

In 2023, the Astros lost their first opening-day game in a decade but were able to bounce back against the White Sox, splitting the four-game series.

Houston then lost 2 of 3 to the Tigers and 2 of 3 to the Twins, making their record 3-6.

The slow start was not limited to this nine-game stretch as the team was still under .500 at 17-18 on May 8th.

A big reason for the Astros starting slow was due to Jose Altuve breaking his thumb while playing in the World Baseball Classic.

The Astros then started one of their best stretches of the season going 14-3 in their next 17 games, with an eight-game winning streak in the middle. 

In the end, the Astros were able to win their division on a tiebreaker against the Rangers. A big help was sweeping the Rangers in Arlington and scoring 39 runs in a 3-game series in September, and winning 4 of 5 against Seattle and Arizona to end the season.

Despite another slow start, the Astros were able to win the division yet again. They were able to beat the Twins in the ALDS, and unfortunately lost in the 2023 ALCS to the Rangers in seven games. 

Final Thoughts

The Astros have an affinity for starting slow, and even though the Astros are currently 2-5, and their bullpen looks like a dumpster fire, we are not in uncharted territory.

Baseball is a super long 162-game season, and it can’t be determined after seven games.

This is what Astros Projections is all about, keeping sane amid struggles and keeping your head during the good times.

Did you find any of these slow starts surprising? Let us know in the comments below or tweet your answers to us @astronomic1.