A 1-5 record since sweeping the Rangers was not what the doctor of the Astros’ playoff chances ordered, but here we are.
While there are scenarios that have Houston Wild Carding, the odds are decidedly against the Astros, as we’ll see shortly.
Expected Wins
This is a flat 86, which implies a 1-2 series in Anaheim.
The Should Be Standings
The Astros are still 1.8 games over expected wins.
Projected Standings
No one is overcoming the Mariners’ 17-1 roll. Congrats, Seattle.
If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate:
Wild Card
As of this morning, I have the East a toss-up, with the Yankees or Blue Jays winning the East and the other taking the first Wild Card.
The Red Sox will likely be the second Wild Card, currently projected for 88.7 wins.
I have the Tigers holding on in the Central, leaving the Guardians and Astros battling for the final AL playoff spot.
In my standings, the Guardians have a full game advantage, 87.0 to 86.0.
Professional Projections
Fangraphs’ playoff picture has cleared, and they assign Houston a 28.6% chance of making the playoffs (2 in 7, in other words).
Remaining Schedules
Houston - 3 at Los Angeles Angels.
Cleveland - 3 home vs. Rangers.
Boston - 3 home vs. Tigers.
While the Rangers have mailed it in, there is certainly a chance in the other series, especially with those teams knowing the Guardians’ situation.
Batting and Pitching Projections
With 98.1% of the regular season done, the projections below are close to the final stats.
Rando Stats of the Day
The Astros are slashing .239/.304/.378 in September with a .299 wOBA and 91 wRC+.
The Astros have a 4.28 ERA, 3.69 xERA, 4.51 FIP and 4.20 xFIP in September.
Carlos Correa has a 122 wRC+ as an Astros in 2025.
Carlos Correa has played in more games and has more plate appearances as an Astro than Yordan Alvarez in 2025.
Taylor Trammell’s 12.9% BB% trails only Cooper Hummel (13.5%) and Yordan Alvarez (14.1%).
Yainer Diaz has an O-Swing% of 43.4%.
Hunter Brown’s ERA (2.43) is second in the American League and has dropped 1.06 from last season.
As always, thanks for reading!