Spinning Wheel Got to Go Round
Astros 2 games back in the mediocre AL West
With an opportunity to go 9-4 in their last 13 games and maintain momentum in the AL West, the Astros and Tatsuya Imai fell flat in an 8-3 loss to Minnesota, dropping the series.
In an all-too-familiar performance, Imai lasted just an inning and a third and required more yeoman’s work from A.J. Blubaugh, who has pitched more innings than Imai this season, despite Imai starting 12 games and Blubaugh starting none.
Expected Wins
After pushing their expected wins to 77 after Tuesday’s game, the loss on Wednesday dropped Houston back to 76 expected wins and leaves them projected for third place in a horrid AL West, 7 games behind the Mariners.
June wRC+
Yordan continued to rake in June, with assists from Pena, Paredes, Trammell, and Delgado, while Altuve and Walker struggled.
The team finished with a 100 wRC+ for June with a .237/.309/.413 slash and has scored 126 runs in 27 games (4.7 runs per game).
This is a power-laden team with 37 home runs in June (1.37 per game) and 116 on the season (1.30 per game for the season), which puts them on pace for 211 home runs.
I currently project the team to 194 home runs.
Updated Projections
Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.
Blubaugh has been invaluable as a long man.
The team has an ERA of 4.33 in June, with starters at 5.76 (xERA much better at 4.26) and the bullpen at 2.57.
Record by Starting Pitcher
Arrighetti is struggling; Teng was optioned, shocked that the team is 7-5 with Imai starting.
Quality Starts
There has definitely been improvement in the rotation, but will it be enough? At the current pace, the Astros will finish with 46 quality starts, which is way below the three-season average.
The 84% win percentage in quality starts is likely unsustainable, so you need as many as possible.
Game Scores
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.
So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
Win Shares
Add all these together, and you get a net of 43, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.
Yordan is running away with this, and over the All-Star Break, I plan on doing some type of league-wide comparison to see where he stacks up in the MVP race.
MLB Expected Wins
The data below is through July 1.
Thanks for reading!