Storm Clouds Gathering

Astros lose two of three in Cincinnati

After a nice win (and elite pitching by Burrows) on Friday night, the Astros scored one run in the next two games combined to drop the series 2 games to 1.

Ahead are the Mariners who have only 19 wins, with four of those coming at the Astros expense.

Yikes.

The Astros have a 16-25 record and are tied with the Angels for fourth/fifth place in the AL West, 5.5 games behind the Athletics.

Updated Projections

We are now 25.3% of the way through the season, and the team has a 113 wRC+ (5th) and 5.57 ERA (30th).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti leading the way and it’s not close.

Quality Starts

Fantastic start by Burrows. Let’s hope that’s repeatable.

As I mentioned last time, teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start across the league.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score as this one does.

Game Scores

Lambert leads the active pitchers, with Arrighetti not to far behind.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 16, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan adds to his lead while Walker takes a step back.

That Correa injury is depressing.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2, but outscored the Reds 11-8.

AL West Expected Wins

The good news is the AL West is so mediocre that they are not out of it.

MLB Expected Wins

Thanks for reading!