Streaking 'Stros Survive
Astros have won 8 of 9, with the Rangers coming to H-Town next
I’m not a fan of the saying “suddenly” when something happens over weeks, months or even years, but most do it, myself included.
This wasn’t sudden. Unless you consider 9 days sudden. Perhaps in the scheme of a 162-game MLB season, it is.
The Astros were last .500 or better on April 7. More than three and a half months ago. Not sudden. It’s been a long slog.
The Astros’ current streak of 8 wins in 9 games began on July 20th. Tomorrow is August 1st.
Let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (as of July 30):
Projected Remaining Record: 26-26 (Previous 29-29)
Projected Final Record: 81-81 (Previous 79-83)
Win Division: 21.3% (Previous 12.3%)
Wild Card: 17.2% (Previous 11.5%)
Make Playoffs: 38.6% (Previous 23.9%)
Win 5 of 6 (since last published) and your odds improve.
Funny how that works.
But the Rangers and Mariners being mediocre has certainly helped.
Expected Wins
The Astros are up to 79 expected wins in my formula and the reason they are below .500 is run differential (-41).
Hopefully, this post-All-Star Break breakout clarifies recency a bit.
The Astros are within 2 xWins of the AL West lead (as of July 30):
July wRC+
Yordan has cooled a bit, if you can believe that, but continues to be 200+ and Pena has been scorching hot.
Updated Projections
One wonders how long the Lucas Spence experience can continue.
Amazingly, Bryan Abreu is 7 for 7 in save opportunities.
The team has a 4.62 ERA in July, with the starters at 5.70 and the bullpen at 3.45.
The starters have improved slightly recently, but Imai is the standout and not in a good way, rolling with a 7.71 ERA (9.05 xERA, 7.91 FIP and 6.71 xFIP) in July.
The bats have been consistent, but not flashy, and are slashing .240/.317/.417 with 35 HR and 108 runs in 22 July games (4.91 R/G).
The slug dropped a bit since last week.
Record by Starting Pitcher
The crazy thing about Imai struggling is that the team scores and wins when he pitches, averaging 6.46 runs and going 10-5.
For reference, the Astros average 4.19 runs for Lambert, 4.03 for Arrighetti and 4.67 for Brown.
Quality Starts
Wesneski missed a quality by an out, but still provided what was needed - 17 outs and kept the team in the game.
On pace for 47 after 70 last season.
Game Scores
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.
So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
Win Shares
Let me know what you think of the new format. I’m still messing around with it, hoping to make it easier to read.
Yordan continues to dominate; Pena has passed Paredes.
Lambert most valuable pitcher.
MLB Expected Wins (as of July 30)
I’ll be back (probably) next Friday.
Thanks for reading!