If you missed it, yesterday we updated the playoff odds, expected wins and AL West projections.
Today, we focus on player projections, quality starts, record by starting pitcher, August wRC+ (and monthly) and Win Shares.
First up, the batters.
Yordan projecting to 40 home runs, 101 RBI, and a 1.035 OPS and has upped the projected plate appearances to 640.
I was incorrect last week when I wrote about my projected home run total. Not sure where the mix up was, but the large discrepancy caused me to go back and rework my projections and it now sits at 207.
The team is “on pace” for 213 (down from 218 last week) home runs, so I still see some more downside coming.
The pitching has been horrific and it has spread to the bullpen as of late.
August wRC+ Check-In
The team has a 91 wRC+ so far in August and struggled to score in the recent homestand.
The charts below are interesting perhaps only to me. What they show is some players have been very consistent - Yordan and Paredes for example, while others are wildly inconsistent - Pena, Cam and Altuve.
Walker seems to be in his own category - on fire for March and April, well below average since. Walker raked for a 154 wRC+ in March in April, but since then? 104 in May, 88 in June, 98, in July and 80 so far in August.
Win Shares
Batters 49.1 Win Shares
Pitchers 15.9 Win Shares
Record by Starting Pitcher
Hunter Brown wasn’t terrible, but who saw a 6-8 record in his starts? If that is turned around to say 8-6, the Astros are in a much better spot.
He just hasn’t been the dominating pitcher he was and perhaps is still working back from his injury (speculating).
Quality Starts
Game Scores and Starter Grades
MLB xWins through August 23
Next update to be determined. I will be traveling most of next week.
Thanks for reading!