The Astros will miss Hector Neris
After an under-appreciated season Neris appears headed elsewhere
While some Astros fans are quibbling over backup catchers and dreaming of signing a big-name free agent that’s not likely to happen, a huge piece of the 2023 team has been linked to the Rangers and Yankees.
Those teams have emerged as “potential frontrunners” for Hector Neris, whatever the heck that term means.
I’ve mentioned before that I’m a big Neris fan, or more precisely a big fan of what Neris accomplished in 2023.
Click on the link above and you can read about some of his advanced numbers that aren’t great, his mediocre stuff and how some analysts believe Neris is “overhyped”, to use my son’s phrase.
I understand Neris failed as a closer in Philadelphia, but he thrived in Houston and found remarkable consistency last season in 71 appearances.
Yep, 71 appearances as in 44% of Astros games.
One thing Neris did in 2023 was improve the Astros’ chances of winning in appearance after appearance.
Today’s game is marked by 6 inning starters (if you’re lucky) and a parade of relievers. Neris was generally the 7th or 8th-inning guy, before Abreu and Pressly.
58.1 of his 68.1 innings came in the 7th or 8th innings in 2023 to the tune of a 1.53 ERA in those innings.
But back to increasing the odds of winning. Fangraphs has this great stat called Shutdowns and Meltdowns for relievers.
I’d encourage you to read more if you’re so inclined, but here’s the CliffsNotes:
A Shutdown is when a reliever accumulates greater than or equal to 0.06 WPA in any individual game.
A Meltdown is when a reliever’s WPA is less than or equal to -0.06 in any individual game.
Just to be clear, that .06 is 6 percent, one way or the other.
In 2023 Neris was tied for 14th in MLB with 33 shutdowns.
33 times Neris improved the Astros Win Probability by 6% or more.
But even more than that, only 4 times did Neris “meltdown” during the entire season.
33 times to the good, 4 times to the bad.
Neris’ 33 shutdowns were 24% of the Astros team total of 138, while his 4 meltdowns represented only 6% of the team’s total of 69.
That ratio of shutdowns to meltdowns was 8.25:1, which was good enough for fourth in all of MLB (30 appearances minimum) and second in the American League.
In addition, that ratio blows away both Bryan Abreu (2.56) and Ryan Pressly (2.80).
The point is not that Neris could be as successful in Abreu or Pressly’s role, but rather that he was very good in HIS role.
And if Hector is pitching somewhere else in 2024 someone will have to replace that for the Astros.
Maybe that’s Bennett Sousa, one of the other “under the radar” signees, or some combination of relievers, but those are big shoes to fill.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that Neris would perform the same in 2024 and, as pointed out, some of his expected numbers hint at the possibility of regression.
Furthermore, the Rafael Montero Experience has likely soured Jim Crane on resigning Neris at a higher asking price.
That’s unfortunate if that’s the case and Neris may well be overpaid by another organization.
But make no mistake, the loss of Neris leaves a giant hole in the Astros bullpen with no apparent solution in sight.
Thanks for reading!