The Formerly Evil Empire
The New York Yankees visit Daikin
Fresh off a series win in Cleveland, the Astros take on the New York Yankees over the weekend at Daikin Park, before another off day on Monday.
I mentioned to the kid a few days ago that the Yankees don’t really represent the Evil Empire anymore; the Dodgers have taken that title these days.
New York leads the AL East by two games at 15-9 on the season.
Updated Projections
We are now 16.0% of the way through a season that feels like it’s moving fast. The two off days within 5 calendar days should hopefully slow things down enough to catch our breath and perhaps earn a few more wins.
The roster churn continues as players keep getting hurt. Last I saw, Houston led the league with 16 players on the IL.
While JP France is back with Sugar Land, Christian Roa has been claimed by the Twins and apparently will not return.
Record by Starting Pitcher
Peter Lambert has been added to the growing list.
Quality Starts
A nice start by Lambert to close out the Cleveland series leaves the Astros 4-0 when they get a quality start and 6-16 when they don’t.
Game Scores
Lambert recorded a 70 on Wednesday
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.
So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
20 Starts: 2 A+, 3 A, 1 B, 3 C, 2 D and 15 F.
This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.
Win Shares (not fWAR)
Add all these together, and you get a net of 10, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.
Yordan continues to pace the field, with Altuve going 0-for-Cleveland and making an error.
Batters have combined for 6.1 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at 0.1 (at least it’s positive this time).
If you calculate that out, it would mean the batters are responsible for 9.8 wins and the pitchers 0.2.
Sounds about right.
K-BB% Percentiles
I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.
These are the Astros starters and their percentile rankings in this metric.
It’s still early, but here is the general scale:
Elite: 15-20%
Solid/Above Average: 12-15%
Average: 11-13%
Poor: Below 10%
As of this writing, the league average is 13.0%.
Astros Expected Wins
Going 2-1 and outscoring the Guardians 16-10, added 4 wins to the Astros total, but…
AL West Expected Wins
They are still last in the AL West.
MLB Expected Wins
Thanks for reading!