The Future: Ethan Pecko
Breakout MiLB star in 2024 may be ready to contribute at the MLB level in 2026
Each Winter, I reach out to Kenny Van Doren of Astros Future (I highly recommend the podcast) for players who have the potential to help the Astros in the coming season.
No one knows more about Astros prospects than Kenny.
I’ll be sharing the names Kenny shared with me, some of whom you’ve read about here previously, along with a few new names.
We’ve profiled three so far:
Brice Matthews, Zach Cole and Miguel Ullola.
Idle Arm
Six-foot two, 195-pound Ethan Pecko missed arguably two of the more important seasons of a young pitcher’s development - his senior year of high school and freshman year of college - due to the pandemic and Tommy John Surgery, respectively.
Not only that, but La Salle University then dropped baseball before he ever threw a pitch, leading him to transfer to Towson, where he finally got on the mound and shone in 2023, culminating in being selected by the Astros in the 6th round, after just 59.2 innings of college ball.
After tossing a few innings that summer for the Astros Rookie League team and 12 for Single-A Fayetteville, Pecko opened eyes with his performance across three levels (A, A+, AA) in 2024, making 26 appearances (15 starts), allowing only 79 hits and striking out 125 over 96 innings, while holding opponents to a .219 batting average.
Those numbers earned Pecko the Astros Minor League Pitcher of the Year for 2024.
Pecko started 2025 in Corpus, but was promoted to Sugar Land and acquitted himself well across 8 appearances (7 starts) and 35 innings, pitching to a 3.09 ERA in the hitters league, allowing 34 hits, while striking out 48 and walking 12.
What’s He Got?
Pecko’s best pitch is a bat-missing fastball that sits 92-94 MPH and has reached 96, while grading out at a 55.
Pecko uses a three-quarters arm slot and has an extension that the Astros pitching brain trust covets, which adds to his deception and makes up for some of his more mediocre stuff, especially his curve and changeup.
He also has a slider and a cutter.
The fastball is Pecko’s only pitch that grades out over 50 and he is given an overall grade of 45.
2026 Outlook
Pecko is currently the Astros’ 10th-rated prospect overall and 4th-rated pitching prospect, behind Ullola, Ryan Forcucci (who has yet to throw a professional pitch), and Bryce Mayer.
Forccuci and Mayer currently have 2027 ETA’s on MLB.com, so it makes sense that Pecko would be next in line behind Ullola when the Astros need help this coming summer.
The top end for Pecko currently sits at a backend (4th or 5th) starter at the MLB level, but with the Astros’ options in front of him, he’s destined for the bullpen, at least in the short term.
With the rest of his repertoire being fringe, Pecko will need his fastball to remain difficult to handle to be successful, and time will tell if he can develop the other pitches needed to become a regular MLB starter.
Thanks for reading!