The Future is Now - The Kikuchi Trade
Dana Brown sees what I see
I have to admit I was a bit surprised by last night’s trade.
Not the part where the Astros got a middling starter, I long thought this was their destiny given what the team had to offer.
Not the part where they gave up fan favorite Joey Loperfido.
And not even that they gave up Jake Bloss.
It’s giving up three (including Will Wagner) that surprised me.
That said, when you break it down, it makes sense.
That is, if you start with the premise that this will likely be the Astros final season of the current run, like I do.
The organization sees what I see: They likely won’t be contenders for some time after 2024, so they need to win this year and Bloss wasn’t going to help them this season.
Loperfido and Wagner were collateral damage, the price of improving your team this season.
Looking at it in that light, the Astros improved their rotation for three players who may or may not become MLB regulars at some point, but weren’t going to help this season.
Could one of Bloss, Loperfido or Wagner become a star? Absolutely.
But the odds are they won’t, much as I argued trading Drew Gilbert for Justin Verlander was a good deal for the Astros.
This, of course, does not mean Yusei Kikuchi will be successful as an Astro.
He could fail and this could end up being an unsuccessful trade in hindsight.
Those are chances you take when your closest opponent is getting better.
There are no risk-free trades.
Imagine if you will, the Astros in a five-year rebuild beginning in 2025.
By 2030 Loperfido is 30 and Wagner 31. They’ve spent the prime years of their careers as part of a rebuild that they likely won’t see the fruits of and their value has plummeted.
I never saw the star potential in Loperfido that others did, at least not at the Major League level.
He’s a good fielder who adds some energy, but he’s not a game-changer at the plate at the MLB level, though I imagine he can grow into an everyday player.
Wagner is 26 and never played in MLB.
Bloss has talent, but was rushed and doesn’t belong in a contending MLB rotation this season or maybe next.
The Astros needed another starter. This season. Not next season. Not for 2026. This season.
This is about 2024 and it was likely the best they could do with the pieces they had to offer.
Good overview with a lot of solid rationale, Marty. If this was 8 years ago, I'd say just turn Brent Strom loose on Kikuchi, do the spin-rate thing, and a nasty(er) pitcher is made better! I'm guessing our two pitching coaches have carried over Strom's philosophies!