The Home Run Project
Surprise, surprise...who's homers "just mean more"?
My kid and I have a running joke about Mike Trout’s home runs and how despite how many he hits, there are few that mean much because, well, the Angels are never in a game of much consequence.
We like Trout and think he’s a fine player. It’s not his fault that the Angels haven’t competed. We could insert a lot of players in Trout’s place, he’s just the one that came to mind because of the Angels ineptitude.
But it got me thinking about home runs, specifically Astros home runs and who hits them when it matters and who hits them when it doesn’t.
Some of this is preordained. For example, when leading off a game Jose Altuve can never have more than a leverage index (LI) of 0.87 (1.00 is average) for that at-bat.
Also, batters at the top and bottom of the order are less likely to have men on base when they come to bat, which adds (or subtracts) to the leverage index.
Still, I wondered who hit bombs when it mattered.
Turns out it was Jake Meyers. At least it was “on average”.
As mentioned, some of this is circumstance. You can’t help it if the guy before you crushes a go-ahead home run (see Kyle Tucker below) and you come to bat with your team leading and no one on base in the 9th.
Still, it gives us some sense of who hits bombs when they count and who hits them when the Astros (or opposition) are piling on.
My biggest takeaways, other than the surprise at Meyers? Shock to find out a bunch of Jeremy Pena’s home runs came with nothing on the line and the game out of reach. The same could be said for Yainer Diaz and Martin Maldonado to a lesser extent.
Only 2 of Pena’s 10 homers had an LI over 1.00 (another was at 0.99), 3 were below 0.10, one-tenth of the average leverage index, and his highest on the season was only 1.47.
I only measured LI and not win probability added or any other measure, because the object was to find out who homered in high-leverage situations, not necessarily who “won” the game.
This was a great exercise for me to remember some of the forgotten moments of the season, such as…
The 5 Highest Leverage Home Runs of 2023
5. 2.85 LI - August 6 - Jake Meyers vs. Wandy Peralta
Jake Meyers had already given the Astros a 3-1 lead in the top of the second with a three-run homer off Carlos Rodon (1.80 LI), but the Yankees had managed to tie the game at 5 by the time Meyers came to bat with runners on the corners and one out in the 6th.
Meyers hit Peralta’s 90.5 MPH pitch 423 feet with an exit velocity of 104.4 MPH giving the Astros an 8-5 lead and increasing their win probability from 60.2% to 85.8% with one swing.
The Astros went on to win 9-7.
4. 3.68 LI - April 21 - Yordan Alvarez vs. A.J. Minter
Alvarez came to the plate in a 4-4 game in Atlanta with two outs in the top of the 9th with Mauricio Dubon having been balked into scoring position.
Alvarez launched the Minter pitch at 33 degrees for 405 feet at 105.5 MPH to give the Astros a 6-4 lead, which would be the final score.
3. 3.85 LI - May 29 - Jose Altuve vs. Brock Stuart
Yes, sometimes high-leverage homers don’t equal a win and that’s the case with Altuve’s seventh-inning grand slam off Brock Stuart that gave the Astros a 5-4 lead and a 75.7% win probability. Ryan Pressly couldn’t hold it in an eventual 7-5 loss.
2. 3.95 LI - July 16 - Alex Bregman vs. Jaime Barria
The Astros had an 11.5% chance of winning when Alex Bregman stepped to the plate in Anaheim down 6-5 against Jaime Barria with two outs and Grae Kessinger on second.
Bregman’s 397-foot two-run homer flipped the script and gave the Astros a 79.8% chance of winning.
Perhaps a footnote in history is that Kyle Tucker (0.38 LI) went back-to-back with Bregman, increasing the Astros lead to 8-6, which became important when Shohei Ohtani homered in the bottom of the 9th to make it an 8-7 final in the Astros favor.
1. 4.14 LI - August 8 - Kyle Tucker vs. Felix Bautista
This improbable Astros rally started with something even more improbable - a Jon Singleton walk by Felix Bautista - to start the 9th with the Astros down 6-3 against one the best closers in the game.
Jose Altuve then singled before Alex Bregman struck out and Yordan Alvarez singled to load the bases with one out.
Kyle Tucker then put together the best at-bat of the season for the Astros and, according to Todd Kalas, the best at-bat of the MLB season.
After quickly falling behind Bautista 0-2, Tucker worked the count even before fouling off four consecutive pitches and then deposited pitch No. 9 into the right field stands for a grand slam and a 7-6 Astros lead that would hold up as the final.
Tucker’s home run completely flipped the switch adding 66.0% to the Astros’ win probability with one swing - from 16.4% to 82.4% with one swing.
I plan to do something with this year’s home run data, but not sure what yet. I’ve got some ideas though, but would love to hear yours. Drop me a line.
Thanks for reading!
Well-presented, Marty, and thanks! I need help, sometimes, in plowing through the numbers (yeah, I used to teach math....wanna make sumthin' of it?!?😁), and you did a great job in bringing answers to the "so what?" nature of just raw numbers! Loved the addition of vids, too, to help bring the impact of the numbers back to the field!