NOTE: Traveling next week. The publishing schedule will likely be altered.
With 21 games left in the regular season, the Astros hold a 3.5-game lead over the Mariners and a 5-game lead over the Rangers, and now face a crucial stretch of the season.
Houston travels to Arlington for a three-game series this weekend, before jetting to red-hot Toronto for three and then Atlanta for another three-game set.
They won’t be back home until the 15th, when they once again face the Rangers for three at Daikin, before the Mariners come to town for three.
It feels like a 15-game stretch that could make or break the season.
Let’s get to where we stand.
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
Expected Wins
I’ve adjusted the timeline and scale on the first chart to reflect the ups and downs of the most recent past and to acknowledge that 95 wins is no longer a realistic goal.
The Should Be Standings
The Astros and Mariners are both +11 in run differential, while the Rangers are +90.
My calculation says the Rangers “should” have 4.3 more wins than they actually have.
This means they are dangerous down the stretch and with 6 of the next 12 games against Houston, they have real potential to make a move.
Projected Standings
Yet, if the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, Houston will hang on in the AL West:
Professional Projections
Fangraphs projects the Astros to 88 wins over Seattle’s 85 and 82 for the Rangers.
The site gives Houston a 72.6% chance of winning the division and a 92.3% chance of making the playoffs.
This chart doesn’t look like much now, but let’s give it a few days to see if it becomes useful or interesting.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
Caratini returns, Chas optioned.
Another debut (Murray) and another pitcher added to the long list.
Quality At-Bats
Yordan.
Team average is 39.1.
Rando Stats of the Day
In 37 plate appearances since coming off the IL, Yordan Alvarez is slashing .500/.595/.786 with a .563 wOBA and a 271 wRC+.
Since August 1, Cam Smith is slashing .169/.247/.234 with a .223 wOBA and 38 wRC+.
Since August 1, Hunter Brown has an ERA of 1.67 (37.2 IP) and Framber Valdez has an ERA of 6.37 (35.1 IP).
Mauricio Dubon is 6th in MLB with 17 Outs Above Average.
Jacob Melton is 6 for 6 in stolen bases.
The Astros are 24th in baserunning using Fangraphs’ BsR metric at -4.8. While that’s not pretty, it’s actually much better than last year’s -12.8.
Bryan King has a 4.01 ERA in the 7th inning (33.2 IP), a 1.76 ERA in the 8th inning (15.1 IP) and a 0.00 ERA in the 9th inning (7.0 IP).
As always, thanks for reading!