Running on Empty
Not every narrative is wrong
One of the main drivers for the creation of this site was (and is) to provide alternatives to narratives that I believe are not correct, like my semi-obsession with quality starts.
Sometimes, though, the narratives, even the simple ones, are correct, and it’s important to point those times out, too.
This is one of those times.
How Bad were the Astros at Scoring?
The entire baseball world knows the Astros struggled to score last season, but let’s quantify it against their peers.
I didn’t include the data labels because they overlap each other, but as you can see, the Astros came in 21st out of 30 teams in scoring, with an average of 4.23 runs per game, when the league average was 4.45.
The raw number doesn’t sound too bad - just 0.22 runs and we’d be average!
However, when viewed in percentiles, as one would for wOBA or xSLG on baseball-savant, the Astros finished in the 31st percentile in runs scored.
Also note that the two World Series participants were in the top 4, all of the top 5 made the playoffs, as did 7 of the top 8 and 9 of the top 11.
Winning Percent by Runs Scored Shows the Point of Excellence
When the Astros score 3 runs or less, they were 22-60 (.268). Score 4 or more runs and their record shot to 65-15 (.813).
Scoring exactly 4 runs netted mediocre results, though (9-8), so the minimum should be 5. When the Astros scored 5 or more runs, they were 56-7 (.889).
Runs Scored is Only Half of the Story
The other half of the equation is run prevention, which the Astros did well at in 2025 (4.10 runs/game allowed), coming in at number nine in the league and landing in the 72nd percentile.
The narrative says score more than three runs, so the obvious answer is to allow three runs or less, but that is difficult to do, as the best team in baseball averaged allowing 3.73 runs.
When the Astros allowed 3 runs or less they went 69-14 (.831) and when allowing 4 runs or less they were 77-27 (.740).
Conclusion: Score More Than Your Opponent
It’s the old chicken and egg argument: Does good pitching stop good hitting or does good hitting stop good pitching?
In 2025, it appears that hitting was more important, at least in the big picture.
What we know is that teams at the top of the runs scored chart mostly made the playoffs, and two of the top four played in the World Series, despite coming in 13th (Dodgers) and 19th (Blue Jays) in run prevention, and three of the top six run prevention teams didn’t make the playoffs.
I have no idea if that’ll be the case in 2026, but given the Astros’ current rotation, relying on the pitching staff to duplicate the success of last season seems dubious at this point.
That could change with a free agent signing or two, but right now the Astros need more runs.
Some narratives are true.
Thanks for reading.