The One That Got Away

Astros blow three-run lead and series to Toronto

The Astros have been on a roll since that Orioles series, but lost a game they should have won on Wednesday.

The Jays were down 3-0, had 0 hits, the Astros ace was on the mound, and when Andres Gimenez grounded out to second, Houston’s win probability was 89.2%.

It had to hurt for a team that missed the playoffs by one game last season.

Let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (as of August 6):

Projected Remaining Record: 24-22 (Previous 26-26)

Projected Final Record: 83-79 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 39.1% (Previous 21.3%)

Wild Card: 17.2% (Previous 17.2%)

Make Playoffs: 56.34% (Previous 38.6%)

They are well over 50% to make the playoffs for the first time I can remember this season.

I don’t generally fret over 1 regular season game, but that one should have been in the win column.

Expected Wins (as of August 6)

The Astros reached 82 expected wins before yesterday’s debacle.

Hopefully, this post-All-Star Break breakout clarifies recency a bit.

Will likely be a close race to mediocrity in the AL West.

July/August wRC+

Yordan has cooled a bit, if you can believe that, but continues to be 200+ and Pena has been scorching hot.

Nice month for Yainer.

Yordan continues his run early in August, with Altuve having a couple of big games, too.

Paredes is wearing an 0-15.

Updated Projections

The Lucas Spence experience has been optioned, and Varsho is an upgrade. Not sure how much of one, but an upgrade nonetheless.

To date, the team has slashed .246/.322/.416 with 157 home runs on the season.

In order, those would rank 11th, 9th, 6th, and 4th in the league, lending credence to my theory that this is a power-laden team.

The 157 home runs in 116 games puts the Astros on a 219 home run pace, but my algorithm sees the top end around 206.

The pitching has improved - all three Toronto games were quality starts (and they somehow managed to lose two of them).

On the season, the team ERA is 4.62 and xERA of 4.26, with starters coming in at 5.10 (28th) and relievers 4.03 (15th).

In 13 games since July 1st, Bryan Abreu has pitched to a 1.32 ERA over 13.2 innings, allowing just 6 hits and 4 walks (still high), while averaging 96.3 MPH on his four-seam.

The starters had 7 quality starts in July, but a 5.57 ERA, with the bullpen recording a 3.33 ERA for the month.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Lambert continues to be the savior.

Quality Starts

This number has ticked up a bit, but still a long way from previous seasons.

On pace for 49 after 70 last season.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Yordan took a step back, despite adding to his fWAR because there are more wins to divy and more players are performing.

Lambert continues to be the most valuable pitcher.

MLB Expected Wins (as of August 6)

Not a great week for the Dodgers, other than getting Tarik Skubal.

I’ll be back (probably) next Friday.

Thanks for reading!