The Remaking of Hayden Wesneski
Pitch selection could be key to Hayden Wesneski becoming a rotation mainstay
Kyle Tucker is pulverizing baseballs for the Cubs while the Astros struggle to hit a double, which hasn’t been a fun trade for Houston fans.
This is despite the realization that Cam Smith, who hit his first home run last night, will likely be smashing balls out of Daikin Park five years after Tucker would have been lost in free agency.
In March, I mentioned that the third player in that trade could provide more immediate returns for the Astros.
After a mediocre start in his Houston debut, Hayden Wesneski pitched a gem against the Mariners in start number 2.
I don’t want to get ahead of myself - the Mariners lineup is one of the worst in baseball - but Wesneski still had to do it, and do it he did.
In the box score, he pitched 7 innings, gave up 3 hits and 2 runs on Ryan Bliss (or Babe Bliss, as we call him in our house) home run, struck out 5 and walked 0.
A beautifully pitched game.
But digging deeper, it was even prettier than those numbers show.
In 5 of 7 innings Wesneski retired the Mariners in order.
In 4 of 7 innings Wesneski retired the Mariners in 10 pitches or less.
Mariners or not, that’s impressive.
I also noted that Wesneski had two rarely used pitches that were gems and wondered if they’d be used more often in Houston.
That 3.34 runs per 100 cutters, places Wesneski tied for 12th in all of baseball in that category (with Kaleb Ort, no less).
The changeup was good, too, though 1.37 places him 61st in MLB for 2024, it’s better than anyone else in the rotation by a mile.
Pair two good pitches with Wesneski’s ability to locate and we’re getting a picture of why the Astros believe he can be an effective starter.
But here’s the question…these aren’t the pitches Wesneski was throwing in Chicago. Why?
Will he throw more of them in Houston? Will they continue to be as effective if used more often?
Through 2 starts the answer is an unequivocal “Yes”.
Wesneski has almost doubled the use of the cutter and more than doubled the percentage of changeups, while the sinker has been halved and the sweeper (even if you include curves) slashed.
And the results?
Opponents are 0 for 11 against the cutter and change in Wesneski’s first two starts.
It’s only two starts in a long season, one against a weak-hitting team, but the early returns are promising.
Sunday’s start against a rejuvenated Angels offense will tell us more.
Watching Tucker rake in Wrigley still stings. Isaac Paredes is scuffling, though he hit one out last night, too, and Cam Smith is still a work in progress.
But the Astros may have found something in Hayden Wesneski and we should have data point No. 3 Sunday.
Updated Projections
I’m on the road in Houston till Sunday, so the updates will be minimal, but here are the updated batter and pitcher projections after Friday’s game.
xWins
The Astros are currently the only team in the AL West with a positive run differential.
After games of April 11 in 2024 the Astros were 4-9, with loss 9 being a 13-3 bashing by the Royals, where Hunter Brown gave up 11 hits and 9 runs in two-thirds of an inning.
Rando Stats of the Day
To reach the .284 projection above, Yainer Diaz will have to hit .297 over the balance of the season.
Despite the horrible start, Yordan is on pace for 112 RBI: ((9 RBI/13 games)*162 games).
That’s why I don’t use “pace” in my projections. I project him to 93 RBI currently.