The Rotation
Plenty of options and plenty of questions
One thing the Astros seem to have plenty of is starting pitching.
Of course, as we found out in 2023, you can never have too much starting pitching, as the Astros rotation was falling like flies for a part of last season, with Houston using 10 starters over the season.
Assuming health for starters except for Lance McCullers, Jr. and Luis Garcia and no trades, the Astros have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown and J.P. France, with Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco in the wings.
What at first looks like incredible depth from the outside could also be viewed as a group with a lot of questions when looked at from the inside.
Verlander will be 41 later this month, Valdez is coming off a mediocre season and was terrible in the postseason, Javier regressed from 2022, Urquidy is coming off an injury and Brown and France faded down the stretch.
It wasn’t pretty down the stretch last season for the starters.
Of course, it could all come together and with McCullers, Jr. hoping for a July return and if Garcia can return around that time Joe Espada may have an abundance of starters by August.
For a numbers guy like me, the chances of all those things happening in the same year are small. Like tiny.
I won’t bore you with the math, but the odds of everything working out for the starting 5 is why “you can never have too much pitching”.
Forty-one-year-old Justin Verlander probably isn’t going to make 32 starts, Valdez is not likely to register a 2.82 ERA and Javier isn’t likely to hold opponents to a .170 batting average.
Even if each of those things by itself is likely, which I consider dubious, the odds of all three happening in 2024 are small.
The good news is other teams face similar dilemmas and problems to some extent, with most teams worse off.
In the big picture, the Astros are fortunate.
The top 3 of Verlander, Valdez and Javier would seem set, barring something unforeseen.
Assuming a five-man rotation, that leaves two spots for Urquidy, Brown and France.
That’s an interesting discussion as they all offer something different.
Urquidy has more experience and has been good in the postseason, Brown has the most upside and struck out 10.43 per 9 innings despite fading down the stretch and France was solid for most of his 23 starts, though he too faltered late.
One thing for sure, though, there will be injuries, bumps, bruises, sore arms and forearms, fatigue, soreness and yes, discomfort.
There will likely be opportunities for most, if not all, through the 162-game season, along with Bielak, Blanco and maybe others.
Too much starting pitching doesn’t exist.
Thanks for reading!