The "Should Be" Standings Say What?
With 28 games to go and the offense struggling the Astros are hanging by a thread
Two weeks ago, I wrote about how the Astros' new look offense had been raking since the trade deadline, even if the Mariners won the media award and attention for adding Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor.
Houston had slugged it’s way to a 112 wRC+ through the first half of August and then…a lot of zeros.
Just when you think you know baseball, it finds a way to kick you in the private parts, repeatedly.
Since I wrote those words, the Astros’ offense has compiled a 74 wRC+ and fielded one of the worst offenses in baseball, while the Mariners (110 wRC+ in that period) and Rangers (136) offenses have caught fire.
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
The big picture is hard to read and it looks like the Astros have been treading water since May and that is partly true.
But a look at the xWins since the All-Star Break tells a different story and it’s a downward trend for the Astros, fueled by blowout losses and nail-biting wins.
The Should Be Standings
I’ll catch some heat for this one and that’s fine.
Last time out, I mentioned how the Rangers led the division in run differential despite being in third place.
20-3 wins will only help that and the Rangers have now outscored their opponents by 80 runs, while the Astros are +19 and Mariners +25.
I’m not sure I believe it myself and the Rangers are still 6.5 back with 27 games left on their schedule and with recent injuries, one has to wonder if that pace is sustainable.
I vote no.
Nonetheless, this is what my “Should Be” Standings reflect at this moment.
Before you yell at me, just know that ESPN has the Rangers’ current expected wins at 78 - they “should be” running away with the West given their run differential.
My model pulls them back to reality because wins and losses matter, but the Rangers are in a weird spot.
Projected Standings
Despite what they are currently doing, I expect the Rangers to finish third, with Houston edging out the Mariners if the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate:
That three-game series with Seattle in late September at Daikin Park looms large, at least at this point, as does the six remaining games with the Rangers.
Professional Projections
Fangraphs agrees, projecting the Astros to 89 wins over Seattle’s 88 and 81 for the Rangers.
The site gives Houston a 57.1% chance of winning the division and a 93.1% chance of making the playoffs.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
There has been some expected regression for Correa, but Christian Walker is on a tear.
Abreu has been nails.
Quality At-Bats
You can see Correa’s regression here, as he was at 51.6% last post.
Team average is 39.0.
Rando Stats of the Day
Christian Walker is slashing .242/.324/.560 with a .371 wOBA, 140 wRC+ and 8 home runs/19 RBI in 91 August at-bats.
Despite some regression, Carlos Correa has a 136 wRC+ since joining the Astros.
Houston is 7-1 in starts by Jason Alexander and the Astros are averaging 6.56 runs when Alexander starts.
Jacob Melton is batting .100 (3-30) with a 38.2% strikeout rate since his recall.
Bryan Abreu has an ERA of 0.00 in 13 August innings over 12 appearances with a .114 opponent batting average while averaging 97.3 MPH on his four-seam fastball.
In 5 August starts, Hunter Brown has recorded a 1.71 ERA, but has just one win.
As always, thanks for reading!