The West Was Not Lost in a Day

Aug 24, 2024

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If your house is anything like ours, last night’s loss was the beginning of the end, at least for some Astros fans.

Once again, our favorite team snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, broke our hearts and “gave away the American League West” (paraphrasing).

It only worsened as the Mariners rallied to beat San Francisco and close the gap to 4.5 games with 34 games to go for Houston and 33 for Seattle.

Except, that’s not even remotely close to the truth.

Don’t believe me and my wonky projected standings? Fine.

Maybe you’ll believe Fangraphs.

The loss to the Orioles, combined with the Seattle win, improved the Mariners odds in the West from 11.8% to 12.2%.

Not ZERO, but hardly an earth-shattering move.

Of course, how last night FEELS is different and that’s what we’re dealing with here, feelings.

Feelings are important for fans (and players) and there’s no doubt we would feel a different way if the Astros held on for the win.

That’s part of what we love about sports.

One of my favorite quotes is (paraphrasing) “Analytics see every play, our memories only see highlights.”

In this case, we see the blown “win”, and have somehow forgotten that it was one game of 162.

Technically, it means no more or no less than a random game in April.

Except for those feelings.

Fact: Last night’s loss will have very little to do with whether or not the Astros win the West, about 1/162nd or 0.6% of a season.

Here are some other facts, assuming Seattle has the tiebreaker:

You get the point.

Sometimes I find “comfort” in numbers like the ones on Fangraphs, my projected standings or the ones above.

When chaos erupts around me, I retreat to facts, not feelings.

While those around me are panicking, I’m at peace knowing the needle was barely moved.

Now, today’s game?

That’s a big one.