This is fWAR!
Astros have some work to do to recapture AL West in 2026
I’ve been candid about my feelings about the WAR stat and I feel so strongly that I rarely use it, preferring instead to focus on wRC+, wOBA or OPS+ for batters and various other advanced stats for pitchers.
I just don’t think it does a very good job of capturing a player’s contributions in the current game.
Yes, it’s better than nothing and certainly better than batting average or wins or any other counting stat.
I do use fWAR as part of my calculation of Win Shares.
I’ve also found it useful in comparing personnel on teams and which parts of a team are strong, weak or average.
Intuitively, we know the Astros need at least one starting pitcher, an outfielder and maybe a backup catcher.
But how far behind are the Astros to the Mariners? What do they really need and where?
Using the projected lineups, rosters and 2025 fWAR numbers from the Roster Resource pages on Fangraphs, I put together a comparison of where the Astros sit compared to their AL West counterparts and it’s not a particularly great picture.
The Astros currently sit about 7.9 fWAR behind the Mariners, comfortably in second place in the West.
Remember when I said the Astros need a bat? At least. However, perhaps this is not as bad as it appears if Yordan Alvarez is healthy.
Alvarez had fWARs of 6.4 (2022) and 5.2 (2024) in the last two seasons in which he played at least 135 games.
Last season Alvarez checked in at 0.5 fWAR.
An increase of 4.7 fWAR from Alvarez would obviously help, but that still leaves room for another bat, improvement from right field, or both.
Nothing quite shows the Astros’ desperation in the rotation like the graph below. Yikes. Dead last in Rotation fWAR, behind even the Angels and Athletics.
Even if Framber (4.0 fWAR in 2025) was added back in, Houston would still be a distant third.
They need more like a starter and a half to be competitive.
Finally, an area the Astros still lead the division.
Even without Dubon, the Astros also lead in bench fWAR.
A General Guide
Having the most fWAR doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll win your division, as the 2023 Rangers proved.
2025 fWAR doesn’t guarantee that those numbers will be replicated (good or bad) in 2026.
It is instructive in the general sense and as confirmation of places that need help and an idea of the magnitude of those shortfalls.
Over the last three seasons, the Astros have averaged 0.46 fWAR per win, and with 33.6 fWAR currently on the projected roster that comes out to an estimated 73.2 wins, 14.4 wins behind the Mariners projection.
Finding and paying for 7.9 fWAR is a lot to make up for with the Astros’ budget constraints and operating philosophy, but as mentioned, a healthy, productive Yordan Alvarez will go a long way towards that goal.
Still, the Astros are behind the Mariners as free agency begins and Dana Brown has his work cut out for him if the Astros are going to contend in 2026.
Thanks for reading!