The Good, The Bad & The Altuve
It was breaking balls in 2025; this year it's another pitch
There’s no left field experiment to explain it away this season, just the numbers and the honest analysis with the assistance of my eyeballs and brain.
It’s no secret that Jose Altuve has declined in recent years, and now we’re at the point where the Astros leader sits at the All-Star Break with a .232 batting average (.228 xBA, 21st percentile).
I analyzed his descent last fall, and this is a follow-up to see what, if anything, has changed, for better or worse, in 2026.
One remarkable thing about Altuve’s career has stayed constant, though it is closer to being over than ever: With the exception of the pandemic season of 2020, Altuve has had a higher batting average than expected batting average every single year since it became a thing.
It’s precariously close this season, as close as it’s ever been, and could still flip, but at least for now
Checking in on Breaking Balls
Back then, I wrote that the biggest change in 2025 was that Altuve struggled against breaking balls, defined as curves, sliders, sweepers, slurves, and knuckleballs.
Overall, Altuve has improved against breaking balls this season, hitting .232 and slugging .453 on those pitches in 2026, including 6 home runs in 95 at-bats, after hitting just 6 in 229 at-bats in 2025.
That said, his xBA against breaking balls this season is a horrendous .189, so there is room for regression.
Different Season, Different Pitch
I’ve seen online chatter that Altuve still mashes the fastball, and while that’s true from time to time (.252 average, .411 slug, 5 HR in 163 AB), it’s not like last season when he hit .310 and slugged .555 on fastballs (18 HR in 281 AB).
The fact is, he has regressed on the fastballs as a whole, which include the 4-Seam, Sinker, and Cutter varieties.
Digging in, it’s the sinker that seems to be the biggest culprit this season, as he’s gone from hitting .296 with a .439 slugging percentage to .217 and .283 on the pitch, while the run value has gone from 0 in 2025 to -4 through 98 games in 2026.
When he hits it, he’s hitting it harder more often (44% hard hit), but his whiff% and K% have increased on the pitch - it’s literally hit or miss.
And pitchers aren’t dumb: After seeing four-seam fastballs more than any other pitch for every year for as long as they’ve been tracked, this season Altuve is seeing more sinkers than any other pitch.
Some Peripheral Information
Father Time gets us all eventually, but it often catches up with professional athletes in public.
Altuve still has pop when he connects, but he’s always been up and down on his exit velo.
For example, some of his lowest exit velo seasons were in 2017 and 2022, years when the Astros won the World Series.
But this only tracks when there is an exit velo, and with his whiff% and K% increases, 2026 has seen fewer of those.
I don’t know enough about bat speed to intelligently comment, but it’s obviously slowing down, and this looks more linear than the exit velo variance.
Over the last three seasons, it’s down 1.8 MPH.
Conclusion
There’s no calculation I could make to put the proper value on Jose Altuve’s worth to the Houston Astros.
Some things just aren’t measurable.
Baseball, though, is a game of measurables.
It’s OK to admit that Altuve isn’t what he once was, but is still a member of the team and the Astros current best option at second base.
How much longer that remains true is the question.