Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

Unless you're playing the Rockies at home

To say that the Astros have righted the ship would be very optimistic, given the state of their rotation and the performance of their bullpen over the first 20 games of 2026.

I would have felt much better with a sweep of Colorado, but that didn’t happen, as the offense fell short.

If this pitching staff holds an opponent, any opponent, to 3 runs, you have to win that game.

Updated Projections

We are now 12.3% of the way through the season; it’s still early, but we are beginning to get a feeling where the season ahead is headed.

Record by Starting Pitcher

The list of starters is growing daily and will continue to grow this evening with the Astros debut of Peter Lambert.

Quality Starts

Three quality starts in 20 games is not a good sign.

The chart below is a clear warning about not-so-good things.

Game Scores

Spencer Arrighetti’s 69 led the way in increasing the average to 41.9, but that is still far below the MLB average (50).

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

20 Starts: 2 A+, 2 A, 1 B, 2 C, and 13 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 8, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Batters have combined for 4.8 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.4.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and where they rank percentile-wise in this metric.

Perhaps it’s just me, and it was a one game sample, but I find it fascinating that Colton Gordon is in the same percentile as Hunter Brown.

I’m also encouraged by Arrighetti and Lance’s numbers here, but again, small sample.

Burrows is disappointing as is Imai.

Astros Expected Wins

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

This ticked up 2 games with the results of the Colorado series.

AL West Expected Wins

The AL West is developing into an interesting follow.

I didn’t say great, just interesting.

MLB Expected Wins

Still early and I doubt any of the 100+ win teams stay there, with the exception of you know who, and even then it won’t be close to 120.

Thanks for reading!