Updated Projections - 105 of 162 Games
Series Win
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Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 64.8% Preseason Projections: 35.2%
The Astros are 55=50, in 1st place in the American League West by a percentage point ahead of the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 85-77 finish, 1st place in the AL West (by percentage points), gives the Astros a 50.9% chance of winning the Division and a 61.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
As good as Yainer has been at the plate, he hasn’t been clutch. See numbers below.
Aledmys Diaz’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
2 quality starts in three games against the Dodgers.
Stress Index
I like this index in combination with innings pitched, because not every inning is the same.
That said, it’s far from perfect, but it gives you a general idea of who is having stressful starts, especially when you see guys over 105 or so (still developing the heat map aspect).
The Home Run Project
OVER | UNDER
Under: 60 Over: 42 Push: 3
Under: 57.1% Over: 40.0% Push: 2.9%
Streak: 1 UNDER
If you want information on Umpires Scorecards please visit umpscorecards.com.
Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck
Through games of 7.28.34
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
Astros are 25th in the Luck Rankings, implying there is still some upside in their W/L record ahead.
The Astros are 7-17 in one-run games.
The number below is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that can be attributed to “luck”, either positive (green) or negative (red).
Example: At one point the Astros win % was .439 and my numbers say they “should” have been at .493, a difference of .054.
.054/.439 = 12.3% (rounded), which was the Astros luck rating, which was negative in this example.
In general, you expect the teams at bottom to regress positively (towards 0.00) and teams at top to regress negatively (to 0.00).
Other Stats/Information
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “giving your team a chance”.
Rolling 30-Day Batting
Rolling 30-Day Arms
Clutch
Clutch measures how well a player performed in high leverage situations. It’s calculated as such:
In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.
The scale:
Excellent 2.0 Great 1.0 Above Average 0.5 Average 0.0
Below Average -0.5 Poor -1.0 Awful -2.0
By these standards only Caratini is above average and Yordan and Yainer are poor.
Caratini comes in 74th in the league.
For grins the top clutch hitters in the league are:
Daulton Varsho 2.65
Jurickson Profar 2.14
Brandon Nimmo 1.86
Corey Seager 1.79
Jordan Westburg 1.52
MLB Power Rankings
On a scale where 100.00 = 81 wins. In other words, a power number of 110.00 means you would be expected to win 110% of the “average team” (81 wins) which equals 89 games.
These rankings consider runs scored, runs given up AND wins and losses.
50.00 = 40.50 wins
75.00 = 60.75 wins
100.00 = 81.00 wins
125.00 = 101.25 wins
Thank you for reading.