Updated Projections - 11 of 162

Yordan continues torrid RBI pace, Dubon on a roll

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 6.8% Preseason Projections: 93.2%

Season Projections

Yordan now projects to the highest batting average and all of the slash metrics, not to mention HR and RBI for the Astros Triple Crown.

Kyle Tucker is hot on his tail in the RBI race though.

The Astros now have 4 quality starts in 11 games - 2 from Framber and 1 each from Javier and Brown.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Cristian Javier and Mitch Keller have limited exposure to opposing batters, but it looks like this matchup will particularly favor the Astros and Mauricio Dubon.

Bullpen Usage

The bullpen is in good shape with Montero and Neris with three days of rest and Pressly with just 10 pitches in the last three days.

That said, with a quick turnaround from today’s game to tomorrow’s early start, it won’t take much for it to get sideways.

K Prop

My numbers project Cristian Javier at 5.30 strikeouts with the market sitting at 6.5. This is an under bet for me, as I’ve got a 1.2 margin.

Odds

Astros are large favorites again at -180 on Money Line, but you can get them -1.5 for -110 or alternatively take the Astros over 4.5 runs at -114.

Of those three options, I like the -1.5, because that more than likely covers you in case of a pitcher’s duel that the Astros win say 3-1, for example.

Projected Standings

Again, wonky. Angels lost one game and expected wins dropped by 5, Rangers won one and wins increase by 10.

My only real takeaway till at least the end of April is the A’s have been historically bad so far.

May not mean anything note of the day

Mauricio Dubon’s K% of 3.4% is in the top 1% in MLB.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 11.

Thanks for reading!