Updated Projections - 122 of 162 Games
What can Brown do for you?
Be sure to check out our new pages that are updated daily:
Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 75.3% Preseason Projections: 24.7%
The Astros are 66-56, in 1st place in the American League West by 4.0 games over the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 88-74 finish, first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 84.0% chance of winning the Division and an 86.2% chance of making the playoffs.
Different Update
Over 75% through the regular season means the day-to-day stats will change little, so I decided to focus today on the AL West and MLB Standings while still providing the basic batter and pitcher projections.
NEW Podcast Episode - Part 2 of One Year Wonders
Season Projections
Shay Whitcomb’s, Pedro Leon’s and Zach Dezenzo’s projections will reflect a prorated season as we do with all players without previous MLB experience.
Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
Expected Wins | Projected Standings | Power Rankings
Where the Astros stand after 122 games:
Again, 122 games into the season there are generally not seismic shifts as each game is one data point out of an ever-increasing number.
By my numbers, Houston projects to 88 wins and here’s how they got there.
Other sources agree, with the exception being the Pythagorean Expectation which has been consistently higher than the others.
Here is what the entire AL West looks like. Easy to see the separation between the Astros and Mariners and the nose dive the Rangers have recently suffered.
Below is MLB through games of 8.17.24
Good news! I’ve automated this process (Power Rankings and Luck Rankings, too!), so it will be a faster update in the future.
Right now the playoffs project to:
Yankees, Guardians, Astros as AL Division Winners, with the Orioles, Twins and Royals Wild Card teams.
The National League would be Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers as Divison winners, with the Padres, Diamondbacks and Braves as Wild Card entrants.
Finally, if you’re a power ratings kind of guy/girl. Here you go.
Thank you for reading.