Updated Projections - 126 of 162 Games
Five game lead with 36 to go
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Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 77.2% Preseason Projections: 22.8%
The Astros are 68-58, in 1st place in the American League West by 5.0 games over the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 88-74 finish, first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 89.3% chance of winning the Division and a 90.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Different Update
Over 77% through the regular season means the day-to-day stats will change little, so my focus may change day to day.
NEW Podcast Episode - Part 2 of One Year Wonders
Season Projections
Shay Whitcomb’s, Pedro Leon’s and Zach Dezenzo’s projections will reflect a prorated season as we do with all players without previous MLB experience.
Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
Stress
After two straight 100+ starts, lower pitches and stress from Verlander.
HR Project
Bats and Arms - 30 Days
Expected Wins | Projected Standings | Luck Rankings | Power Rankings
By my numbers, Houston projects to 88 wins and here’s how they got there.
Converging in the high 80s with the exception of the Pythag.
Here is what the entire AL West looks like. Easy to see the separation between the Astros and Mariners and the nose dive the Rangers have recently suffered.
Below is MLB through games of 8.21.24
Good news! I’ve automated this process (Power Rankings and Luck Rankings, too!), so it will be a faster update in the future.
Right now the playoffs project to:
Finally, if you’re a power ratings kind of guy/girl. Here you go.
Thank you for reading.