Updated Projections - 141 of 162 Games
Razing Arizona
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Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 87.0% Preseason Projections: 13.0%
The Astros are 76-65, in 1st place in the American League West by 4.5 games over the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 88-74 finish, first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 94.8% chance of winning the Division and a 96.3% chance of making the playoffs.
NEW Podcast Episode - Part 3 of One Year Wonders
Season Projections
Shay Whitcomb’s, Pedro Leon’s and Zach Dezenzo’s projections will reflect a prorated season as we do with all players without previous MLB experience.
Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
Stress Index
I like this index in combination with innings pitched, because not every inning is the same.
That said, it’s far from perfect, but it gives you a general idea of who is having stressful starts, especially when you see guys over 105 or so (still developing the heat map aspect).
The Home Run Project
OVER | UNDER
Under: 81 Over: 56 Push: 4
Under: 57.4% Over: 39.7% Push: 2.8%
Streak: 1 OVER
Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck
Through games of 9.6.24
Other Stats/Information
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “giving your team a chance”.
I do plan on developing something around the “Kikuchi Start” in the off-season.
30-Day Bats and Arms Report
Thank you for reading.