Updated Projections - 21 of 162

Yordan on torrid pace, but Tucker right behind

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 13.0%

Preseason Projections: 87.0%

Season Projections

McCormick in blue to signify IL.

Yordan now projected for 36 HR and 110 RBI, while Tucker joins him in the 30/100 club.

21 games in Pressly, Neris, Montero and Abreu all have 1 save, just like we expected.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Runs will likely be at a premium today, though Javier has given up 5 HR in 51 PAs against the Braves.

Bullpen Usage

Framber, Montero and Abreu did a good job limiting arm use on day 2 of 6 until the next off day.

K Prop

Model is showing 6.84 with market at a predictable 6.5. Javier strikes a lot of Braves out, but he also gives up the long ball. I’d stay away.

Odds

Astros are +126. You are not going to find many instances where the Astros are this big of an underdog and therefore I think the value on the team that’s playing better - Houston.

Javier is a high-variance pitcher, but I wouldn’t pass up +126.

Projected Standings

The Rangers hot start needs to be put in context of the schedule they have faced to date. I’d expect some regression in the next 30 days.

May not mean anything note of the day

My model projects 15 stolen bases for Jeremy Pena. Seems light, but it’ll adjust if he keeps stealing.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 21.

Thanks for reading!