Updated Projections - 22 of 162

After a sweep in Atlanta, it’s on to Tampa

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 13.6%

Preseason Projections: 86.4%

Season Projections

McCormick in blue to signify IL.

Yordan keeps rolling and Julks ain’t going nowhere anytime soon.

The bullpen was impressive in Atlanta and Abreu leads the team in saves with 2.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Rookie Taj Bradley has no stats against the Astros, of course, and has only 2 starts and 10.1 IP of MLB experience. He has struck out 17 in those 10 innings, though.

Urquidy’s penchant for giving up HRs and the Rays MLB leading 48 HR leave me a bit concerned.

Bullpen Usage

Last night was Abreu’s third back-to-back appearance of the season.

K Prop

Model is showing 3.72 with market at a 4.5, which means I take the under. Urquidy just has struck out just 15% of Rays he’s faced. At that rate, he’d have to face 30 batters to hit 4.5 and 34 to hit 5.

Odds

Astros are +128. While I found value on the Astros +126 yesterday, today is not the same with Urquidy on the mound.

Stay away for me.

Projected Standings

The A’s are on a historical pace and I don’t mean that in a good way.

Fangraphs are projecting Oakland to win 66 games, which mean they would have to go 62-78 (.443) to hit that mark.

I doubt 28 wins, but I also doubt 66.

May not mean anything note of the day

Corey Julks has walked 1 time in 57 plate appearances [1.8%]. Fortunately for the Astros that one walk started Friday’s 7th-inning rally in Atlanta that tied the game.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 22.

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