Updated Projections - 3 of 162
2-1 1/2 GB
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 1.9%
Preseason Projections: 98.1%
Season Projections
K Prop
The market shows Luis Garcia at 5.0. Again, it’s a stay-away, with the model only .18 higher.
Odds
The Astros are -164 today which implies a 62.1% chance of winning.
The under 8 I took yesterday held up until late in the game, but didn’t work out in the long run. Still, -164 doesn’t offer enough return, so I looked at taking the Astros -1.5 runs at +122, but Garcia’s numbers below don’t inspire confidence, so I’m staying away.
Bullpen Usage
Somehow, Dusty managed to get jammed up in the bullpen after two games.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Clevinger has limited experience against the Astros, with the exception of Abreu and Bregman. Perhaps today will be the day Bregman breaks out.
Meanwhile, Garcia has struggled against this group of White Sox, with a .340 BA, though the sample sizes are generally small.
Projected Standings
Coming soon.
May not mean anything note of the day
Prior to the series the odds of winning 3 of 4 based on projections at fivethirtyeight.com were around 22%. That’s just the way baseball and math work.
So, if the Astros could somehow pull off a win today, it’d be a great accomplishment after losing on opening day.
Astros 162
Click on the image for Episode 3.
Thanks for reading!