Updated Projections - 40 of 162

Home, sweet home

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 24.7%

Preseason Projections: 75.3%

Season Projections

Jose Abreu’s projections continue to drop.

8 times through the rotation, just about 25% of the season.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 40.

Bullpen Usage

My guess is Pressly is down for the first game against Chicago and Abreu was used twice in three days.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Advantage Astros.

K Prop

The market is at 6.5 and I’m on the over big time here. My model puts Valdez at 8.19 and as you may have noticed above he’s only faced 17 Cubs and struck out 6 of them.

Odds

At -184 Astros seem a little pricey for me and I can’t trust this team to score enough to bet the -1.5.

Projected Standings

Back in second.

May not mean anything note of the day

Brandon Bielak’s Baseball Savant page. His xERA of 8.29.

Thanks for reading!