Updated Projections - 43 of 162

Don't call it a comeback

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 26.5%

Preseason Projections: 73.5%

Season Projections

Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez now projected to combine for 61 HR and 212 RBI.

Not ideal for France to have a bad day, with Bielak waiting in the wings (see note below), though you can’t expect much more than 5 at the most from France at this point.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 43.

Bullpen Usage

An off day was definitely needed, especially with Bielak likely having a shorter outing today (see note below).

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Not much history on either side.

K Prop

I’m mystified by the 4.5 number set for Bielak as he’s only striking out 16.1% of batters this season, which means at that average he’d have to face at least 28 batters. Under is the play.

Odds

Also shocked at the -250 ML on the Astros. If it was someone other than Bielak or France, OK, but this shows you just how bad the A’s are. No play at -250, but I would take the -1.5 at -120.

Projected Standings

Astros sweep Cubs, Rangers lose 2 of 3 to Braves.

May not mean anything note of the day

Brandon Bielak’s xwOBA of .425 is 372nd of 379 pitchers listed and the difference between his ERA (3.29) and xERA (8.27) of -4.98 is the largest in MLB.

Thanks for reading!