Updated Projections - 45 of 162

Yordan Alvarez - Bombs away!

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 27.8%

Preseason Projections: 72.2%

Season Projections

Tucker now projected at 105 RBI.

Yesterday I mentioned the innings that would be necessary to fill without Garcia and Urquidy. Here’s another way to look at this. When you add up all of the starts and projected records for both those below (and some that are unseen, like McCullers, Jr.), it equals 124 starts and 80-51 record. 38 starts and 31 decisions remain unaccounted for.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 45.

Bullpen Usage

Back to back for the fifth time this season for Pressly, so I’m guessing he’s down today, even with the low pitch counts.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

James Kaprielian has pretty good numbers against the Astros, but this matchup favors Houston.

K Prop

Both Brandon Bielak (5 IP) and Hunter Brown (6 IP) had 9 strikeouts in the first two games of the series. The number for Valdez is 7.5 and my number is 6.57, so I would take the under, with the caveat that I would consider a no bet, because of how bad the A’s have been.

Odds

Astros -375 is again a no-way for me, and even -1.5 is -166 and I don’t deem that worth the risk - no bet.

Projected Standings

Behind the scenes, my numbers say the Mariners have been the “unluckiest” team in the West and “should” have 2.53 more wins than they actually do.

Why? They’re 4-11 in one-run games and 2-5 in extra innings. Both of those numbers tend to move towards .500 over time.

May not mean anything note of the day

Per Baseball Savant, Kyle Tucker is -5 Outs Above Average.

Tucker has made catches on 1 of 7 5-Star opportunities, 0 of 8 4-star opportunities, 1 of 6 3-star opportunities, 8 of 9 2-star opportunities and 6 of 7 1-star opportunities.

That -5 OAA puts Tucker in 90th place in Outfield Catch Probability.

Thanks for reading!