Updated Projections - 6 of 162
Fear not, today's matchup heavily favors the Astros
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 3.7% Preseason Projections: 96.3%
Season Projections
Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are now both projected with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI.
A quality start by Framber results in an L but gets 6/8ths of the bullpen the day off.
K Prop
I missed on Valdez, which makes me feel dumb, but think it was a solid play. He started the 7th with 6 Ks and then looked like Walter Johnson for an inning. It happens.
Today’s projection has Cristian Javier at 6.26 and the market is at 7.5.
I’d take the under again, especially with the extra half to 7.5 that provides some leeway that means you’re basically betting under 8.
Odds
Astros are -270 on the ML and -122 on the run line at -1.5 runs. The Money Line would only return $36.36 on a $100 bet, so the run line ($82.64 return) is the way to go.
As you’ll see in the pitching matchup below, the Astros are heavily favored for a reason and the bullpen should be an asset.
Bullpen Usage
I can finally say the team is in good shape with only Stanek and Martinez pitching yesterday and an off day tomorrow.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Cristian Javier hasn’t faced the Tigers much, but he’s dominated when he has.
Rodriquez has at least 10 plate appearances against 5 Astros, but the numbers are good for Bregman and Yordan.
Projected Standings
Checked yesterday. Still wonky.
May not mean anything note of the day
We knew the start would be slow without Altuve. But, even over the last two seasons, with Altuve, the Astros started 11-11 each year before making the World Series in both seasons.
It is not time to panic.
Astros 162
Click on the image for Episode 6.
Thanks for reading!