Updated Projections - 7 of 162

It's cold, expect a low scoring game

Apr 07, 2023

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 4.3% Preseason Projections: 95.7%

Season Projections

Seven games is almost exactly 1/23rd of an MLB season, so take these for what they’re worth at this point.

This a reminder that Julks and Salazar’s projected numbers are calculated differently than the others because they had exactly 0 MLB experience coming into the season.

Consecutive quality starts by Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have fans feeling better about the rotation.

Also, I’ve fixed an issue with the SO and BB categories where they were misnamed.

K Prop

The market has Jose Urquidy at 5.5 strikeouts at open and my numbers show 4.55. I would consider the under, with cold weather and rested bullpen.

Odds

For the first time this season the Astros are underdogs at +106. The cold will be a factor, but given the + money nature of this one, I would take the Astros, with a fresh bullpen ready to roll.

Alternatively, perhaps a bet on the Total of 7.5 is the way to go.

Bullpen Usage

The bullpen should be in a good spot with only Abreu, Montero and Pressly throwing an inning Wednesday and the off day Thursday.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Jose Urquidy only has 31 plate appearances against the Twins, but has held those he’s faced to a .138 batting average, and a .237 xwOBA.

Like most pitchers the Astros have faced in 2023, Sonny Gray has faced Jose Abreu most of any Astro.

Projected Standings

Still wonky.

May not mean anything note of the day

I’ve been a consistent critic of Mauricio Dubon, feeling that he’s close to an “automatic out” on offense and was overrated on defense, especially in centerfield.

We haven’t seen him in center this season and his offense is still questionable, but Dubon’s defense at second has been very good and he’s +1 Outs Above Average at 2nd base in the first 7 games.

I’m not the biggest believer in this metric, but my eyes tell me Dubon has been solid at second.