Updated Projections - 81 of 162
We're halfway there, ohhhh, livin' on a prayer
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 50.0%
Preseason Projections: 50.0%
EDITOR NOTE:
I’ll be traveling to Arlington Sunday and Houston Monday for the games. Updates may be delayed. But I will have new pictures.
Season Projections
We’ve reached the midpoint of the season which means moving forward the actual numbers for the season will account for a larger and larger portion of these projections.
That also means the projections below consist of exactly 50% preseason projections and 50% 2023 actuals.
Tucker’s big night has him at 99 RBI, Bregman’s slam has him at 92, with Abreu right behind at 91.
Abreu’s actual RBI of 41 puts him on pace for 82, and my guess is he ends up somewhere between 82 and 91, assuming he continues to play regularly.
The larger point is he hasn’t been “good”, but 85-87 RBI or so is not nothing and we already pointed out his numbers in June which have been very good (updated below).
Intriguing case to follow moving forward.
As much as we roll our eyes at Dusty’s explanations, he is right about one thing - the bullpen usage over the course of the season has to be a concern: 5 relievers are projected for 60+ appearances, with another at 59. Two are very close to 70.
My guess is Montero doesn’t hit 60 because they no longer trust him, but if something doesn’t change soon this bullpen risks being exhausted in the second half.
Astros 162
Click on the image for Episode 81.
or listen directly below:
Bullpen Usage
The last two days have been good for the pen.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Advantage Rangers.
K Prop
The number for Blanco is 5.5. A small sample size, but my numbers come out at 5.23. 5.5 suggests Blanco would need to face around 27.5 batters, or even 30 to hit the over at 6. No way. Take the under.
Odds
Astros +146 and -137 +1.5. With Blanco on the mound and the Rangers offensive prowess, I don’t see either of those as a good bet. The over 9 total seems the way to go if you have to bet.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
At the Astros midpoint of the season, here are my projections:
AL Division Winners: Rays, Rangers, Twins
AL Wildcard Teams: Orioles, Yankees, Astros
NL Division Winners: Braves, Reds, Dodgers
NL Wildcard Teams: Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins
The NL Central changes every week, so least confident in that mess and of course, the Guardians can catch the Twins.
As far as the Astros go, that’s how they’ve been playing and they’re fairly close to being left out of the postseason.
Fangraphs projects 87 wins for the Astros, which I think is low, but not crazy. They also give the Astros a 60.2% chance of making the playoffs and 28.7% chance of winning the AL West.
Interestingly, Fangraphs has only one 100-win team (Atlanta) and places the Rays at 99 wins and Rangers at 91. The site is notoriously conservative and I have the Braves with 5 more wins, Rays with 9 more wins and Rangers with 12 more.
I started this model projecting wins in 2021 when the Giants were obviously going to win 100+ games (they finished with 107) and until August or September Fangraphs had them in the high 80s/low 90s.
It’s important to remember both of these are snapshots and they will change, but I don’t expect the Rangers to finish the season 42-39. To hit my number the Rangers would go 54-27, which seems unrealistic, too and my guess is it ends up in the middle.
They project the Astros to go 43-38 from this point, one game worse than in the first half, while my numbers project a 46-35 record in the second half for Houston.
The Marlins still rule the Luck factor because of their record in one-run games. A quick way to think of this is that teams with + numbers mean they are overperforming their statistics and are a candidate for regression. A negative number means they are a candidate to improve their record.
That’s good news for the Astros, who just won their first extra-inning game of the season in LA, but it’s bad news because Texas is primed for even more positive regression, hence the projected 54-27 second-half record above.
The Astros “should” have two more wins than they actually do, according to my calculations.
May not mean anything notes of the day
J.P. France in June: 5 starts, 5 quality starts, 33.1 IP, 2.43 ERA.
Jose Abreu in June: 293/.313/.522, 6 doubles, 5 HR, 21 RBI with one game to go.
Despite his June struggles, Jake Meyers still has a wRC+ of 99 and a 1.5 WAR.
Kyle Tucker has improved his defensive profile, but he’s still just 153rd in OAA at -3. For comparison last season he was 25th at +5.
Astros bullpen ERA in first three months of the season was 3.15.
Astros bullpen ERA in June is 4.74.
Average bullpen appearances in first three months: 3.11.
Average bullpen appearances in June: 2.96.
Quality Start Update: Number: 39 Team Record in QS: 28-11 Team Record in non-QS games: 16-26
QS Averages: 6.63 IP 4.26 H 1.59 R 1.33 ER 6.15 K 1.62 BB 1.81 ERA
QS Per 9 IP: 5.78 H 2.16 R 1.81 ER 8.35 K 2.19 BB
Thanks for reading!