Updated Projections - Game 102 of 162

Footsteps

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 63.0

Preseason Projections: 37.0%

Season Projections

Something in the air tonight…tonight…

What a performance from J.P. France.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 102.

Bullpen Usage

Will Pressly be available tonight and if so, will he be effective?

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Lots of experience for Framber vs. Rangers with a 24.2% K rate.

On the surface, lots of experience for Heaney against the Astros, but most of it is concentrated on four players: Bregman, Abreu, Maldonado and Dubon.

K Prop

The number for Framber is 6.5 and my number calculates to 6.66. No bet at 6.5, but I would go under at 7 and over at 6, if you can get either. Sounds strange, but I think he hits 6 more likely than he hits 7, so it would be a push at 6 and a win if he happens to hit 7.

Odds

Astros -188 ML and +114 is 1.5. That’s a bit rich on the MoneyLine and I wouldn’t want to bet against this Rangers offense for the third consecutive day. No bet at these numbers.

Projected Standings & Luck Rankings

Things look pretty dire for the projections above, at least in the AL West with the Astros actually just 1 game back with a chance to even it up tonight, right?

I would suggest with 3 straight one-run wins the “luck” has been trending in the Astros favor in the recent past and that could change moving forward.

Texas’ offense has proven too potent over the first 100+ games of the season to be held down for the long term (barring injury) and I still think they should be considered the favorites moving forward.

Yes, their bullpen is an issue as I discussed earlier this month, but they’ve scored 113 more runs than the Astros this season.

Some of that could be mitigated by the return of Alvarez and Altuve, but that’s to be determined.

For what it’s worth, Fangraphs is currently projecting a 90-72 tie, which in theory means the Silver Boot Series could determine the AL West Champion.

Luck Rankings

Astros are now 14-12 in one-run games, but only 1-7 in extra-innings.

The Astros are still in 22nd place, but the negative number is much smaller than it was on June 30.

May not mean anything notes of the day

• To reach the projected records above the teams would have to go:

  • Rangers 40-20

  • Astros 30-30

  • The teams will more than likely meet somewhere in the middle, but remember my projections are a) based on what has happened to date in the season and b) adjust as more information (games) comes in. So the projection today will be different than tomorrow and the following day.

  • Mine is not the only metric that thinks highly of the Rangers - Pythagorean has their expected record at 65-37, one game better than the 64-38 of my system.

  • There are still 60 games of information left to accumulate.

  • HardHit% (Fangraphs)

    • Starting Pitchers (for the most part)

      

  • Bullpen (for the most part)

    

Thanks for reading!