Updated Projections - Game 103 of 162
Still a long way to go
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 63.6
Preseason Projections: 36.4%
Season Projections
Nice to see movement on the Altuve and Alvarez lines.
Rough outing for Framber Valdez.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 103.
Bullpen Usage
Leverage arms should be ready for the Tampa series.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Not a lot of experience for Javier vs. Rays, with a high K rate and an equally high BB rate.
The Astros have done well against McClanahan in 41 plate appearances, but 6 of those (and a home run) are Abreu so they should be taken with a grain of salt.
K Prop
Cristian Javier comes in at 5.5 Ks against the Rays. With my number coming in at 5.37, there’s no bet here for me. Part of handicapping is also being aware of the situation and not being a blind slave to the old spreadsheet and Javier has not been the Javier of 2022 (see below).
Odds
Given the starting pitchers, the rested bullpen and the return of Altuve and Alvarez, I think the Astros are a bargain at +100 on the ML, but would avoid -178 at +1.5.
Projected Standings
If you read yesterday’s diatribe on projected standings you’ve got a great background on my standings projections. With only 5 games yesterday, you’d think not much would change, but the Angels moved ahead of the Mariners (and closer to the Astros) with a pair of wins and the Cubs moved closer to the Reds (and Brewers) with a win.
Luck Rankings
Similarly, you’d think there’d be very little change in the luck rankings and while there was no earth-shattering movement, there was indeed movement.
May not mean anything notes of the day
Kyle Tucker in 92 PA in July:
.387/.489/.760 with a .510 wOBA 7 HR 20 RBI 236 wRC+ 5/7 SB 1.7 fWAR 1.249 OPS 233 OPS+
Kyle Tucker for the season in 106 PA with RISP:
.381/.448/.607 with 4 HR 49 RBI
Framber Valdez first 20 starts:
2022: 9-4 128.2 IP, 100 H, 2.80 ERA, 3.16 FIP
2023: 8-7 126.0 IP, 112 H, 3.29 ERA, 3.20 FIP
July record and ERA for rotation:
Brandon Bielak 2-1 2.01
J.P. France 3-0 2.22
Hunter Brown 0-3 6.87
Framber Valdez 1-1 7.29
Cristian Javier 0-1 7.80
All have 4 starts except for Javier who has 3.
Thanks for reading.