Updated Projections - Game 106 of 162

Fair to middling

Marty Coleman

Jul 31, 2023

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 65.4%

Preseason Projections: 34.6%

Season Projections

Graveman has replaced Martinez.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 106.

Bullpen Usage

Graveman makes his Astros re-debut.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

All singles vs. France.

Syndergaard has done well against this group of Astros.

K Prop

O/U 3.5 for France and my number comes in at 3.69, necessitating a no-bet for me.

Odds

Astros -178 on the MoneyLine is a heck of a price for the way this team is playing, no thanks. The run line shows Astros -1.5 at +112, which seems like a better risk/reward to me.

Projected Standings

The last day of July brings us three close division races, the Astros in the 3rd AL Wild Card, the Reds back in first (projected) in the NL Central and 7 NL teams projected between 83.5 and 85.6 wins.

Luck Rankings

Marlins back on top of Luck Rankings.

May not mean anything notes of the day

Here’s our J.P. France from the other day:

J.P. France ERA -

Home: 3.96
Away: 2.05
Before All-Star break: 3.26
After All-Star break: 1.47
May: 4.00
June: 2.43
July: 2.22

France throws his changeup almost exclusively (94.9%) against LHB and opponents are slashing .183/.192/.250 off the pitch with 2 extra-base hits in 62 plate appearances.

Thanks for reading!