Updated Projections - Game 113 of 162
AL West race tightens
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 69.8%
Preseason Projections: 30.2%
Season Projections
I continue to doubt my own projections for Jose Abreu, as it will take some doing with 49 regular season games left, and other than about a two-week spurt Abreu’s shown no sign of being able to reach the numbers below. The good news is next year’s projections will reflect this year’s actuals and hopefully be closer to reality.
Abreu is slashing .237/.293/.348 with 10 HR and 56 RBI with 70% of the season done, which means he’s “on pace” for 14 HR and 80 RBI.
The recall of Jon Singleton indicates the Astros are still searching for other options at first.
I have Tucker ending with 29 stolen bases, but this also seems low given the new rules. I would expect the low 30s in the end.
With two pitchers projected for over 70 appearances, two others in the 60s and one at 59, it’ll be interesting to see how the recent additions of Verlander and Urquidy and the theoretical six-man rotation affect the appearances.
We’ve already seen some, right? Verlander went 7 on Saturday and the Astros only used one reliever (Graveman) in the loss.
Then J.P. France threw 70 pitches in relief on Sunday, essentially taking the place of 3 or more arms.
This was a schedule quirk though, with Verlander and Urquidy returning and going back to back and then an off day on Monday making France available in relief.
The Astros bullpen wilting down the stretch is a real danger as evidenced by Pressly not being available Sunday.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 113.
Bullpen Usage
It’ll be interesting to see who’s available today, given the number of pitches Abreu, Maton and Neris threw Sunday.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
The Orioles have hit Framber and Grayson Rodriguez has no experience against any Astro.
K Prop
Framber comes in at 6.5 and my number comes in at 6.83. The over is worth a look, but Framber has been so inconsistent I would think twice.
Odds
Houston is -134 on the MoneyLine, which is expensive considering the location and the opponent. On the flip side, -1.5 at +126 could return nice value and sounds like a better bet. But is it?
The math does not agree.
Implied odds Astros win: 57.26%
Implied odds Astros win by >1: 43.85%
MoneyLine or no bet at these odds.
Projected Standings
Two tight races and the Astros are within striking distance.
I still believe it’s likely the Rangers pull away in the AL West and we’ve seen some evidence of that recently. The caveat, of course, are injuries and the Rangers suffered their second recently and it’s a big one - Josh Jung - and it leaves a window open for the Astros who have gotten much healthier.
That means, despite the gulf above, I’m not ready to call it as of today. Context (and injuries) matters.
The Rays are still 3 games back, but my numbers show a much closer race.
AL Division Champs: Rangers, Orioles, Twins
AL Wild Card Teams: Rays, Astros, Blue Jays
In Hunt: Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees, Guardians (AL Central only), Angels
Eliminated: Tigers, White Sox, Royals, A’s
NL Division Champs: Braves, Cubs/Brewers, Dodgers
NL Wild Card Teams: Giants, Phillies, Brewers/Cubs
In Hunt: Padres, Reds, Marlins, Diamondbacks
Eliminated: Mets, Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals, Rockies
Luck Rankings
Reminder, theoretically teams above zero will head to zero (luck will “even out”) and teams below zero will do the same.
This is partly why I expect the Rays to overtake the Orioles, the Cubs to win the NL Central and the Padres to have a shot at the playoffs.
May not mean anything notes of the day
Jose Abreu since July 30:
.077/.172/.077 .134 wOBA .000 ISO -26 wRC+ [29 plate appearances]
Phil Maton since July 3:
14G 10.2IP 14H 12R 10ER 9K 12BB 2HBP 1WP 8.44ERA 7.95FIP 7.51xFIP